FOREX PRO Weekly, November 22-26, 2010

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,170
Hi Sive,

Usually when the a fibonacci retracements point have been 'overrun', it is discarded.

But what about pivot points that have been overun? e.g. penetrated initially early in the day, but retraces back to it - is it considered a good confluence area if there is a fibonacci retracement level there? And previous weekly/day highs and lows?

In determining a good confluence level, what is your rule of thumb :)

thanks!
regards
The same is with pivots - they become weaker after the each touch. The more touches - pivot point becomes weaker and weaker.
 

pragmatic

Corporal
Messages
109
W&R?

Hello Mr. Morten!
Today, the price action didn't quite rich 61.8% Fib resistance at 1.327 but the difference is only about 13 pips. The price shows a W&R action and now it is moving the other way. Do you think it can turn and hit the Fib. target?
Thank you!
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,170
Hello Mr. Morten!
Today, the price action didn't quite rich 61.8% Fib resistance at 1.327 but the difference is only about 13 pips. The price shows a W&R action and now it is moving the other way. Do you think it can turn and hit the Fib. target?
Thank you!
Well, this is a probability game. Who knows will it happen or not. But - odds suggest that the probability of occurance of this is more than this will not occure. That's why, personally, I do not feel comfortable to establish Long position, if daily target is just 13 pips below me...
If you're bullish and want to enter - fine, but take this fact in consideration. I mean place your stop below this target...
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,170
EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 25, November 2010

Good morning,
Happy Thanksgiving everybody!

Yesterday, EUR has not quite reach the daily target and attempted to show some intraday rally, but failed and returned back to 1.3320 area. Now, guys, I hope you understand why I always wait hiting daily target that just 11 pips lower. Because this is safer to enter after that, then before it..

Now, on daily time frame there is no really interesting - 1.3250-1.3270 area of Agreement just below the market and I think that market should hit it. Also market has accomplished Butterfly "Buy" target at 1.3325
Meanwhile, on 4 hour chart market is flirting with weekly pivot support 2 and our daily Fib support area. It has not shown neccesary price action for B&B sell, because didn't close above 3x3.
Personally, I will be watching for W&R of previous lows and hiting of 1.3270 daily target. If it will happen - this will be the signal for possible retracement to 1.3470 area. Also this W&R can coincide with DRPO LAL on 4-hour chart. Watch it.
 

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INVESTOR

Private, 1st Class
Messages
42
Good Morning Sive...!!!

Good morning Sive...!!!

First that all I wanna thank you one more time for you knowledge sharing.
God Bless You and Felix...!!!

Second, I'm a hard core follower of your work, but this time I bumped into unkown waters with some of your abreviations. I looked into TWDL for some reference and couldn't find any.
My question is: What LAL stands for? I know DROP sell or buy, but this is the first time I see this....:wacko:

I know you'll responde when you can, and I want to thank you in advance.
THANK YOU...!!!

Good morning,
Happy Thanksgiving everybody!......

. .....Also this W&R can coincide with DRPO LAL on 4-hour chart. Watch it.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,170
AUD/USD Daily Update, Fri 26, November 2010

Good morning,

Today, I've decided to shift to AUD, because our trading plan on EUR is still valid. Market 20 min ago has hit daily target. Now I'm looking for W&R. Will it appear or not...
Now about AUD. Aussie has hit couple of targets on weekly time frame - 0.618 from large ABC and 100% from smaller ABC, has reached the parity and shows excellent W&R or RRT. The target of RRT is a length of the bars itself, so in my quotes this is around 0.9470 - very close to previous highs. Take a note, guys, that I use futures, so your quotes (spot market) will be different, but the price action is the same.
Now, on daily time frame we see nice H&S pattern, that has couple of targets. First target is 100% expansion from ABC move is around 0.9483 and it coincides with target of weekly RRT. Here is also a daily oversold.
Next target is 1.618 and it makes and Agreement with weekly Confluence support around 0.92-0.93
The major trick with H&S pattern is that it includes two different targets - AB-CD Buy and 1.618. Which one will prevail who knows. That's why, I prefer to enter during last sell-off of right shoulder, before the break out of a neckline.
In this case you will not take a risk of a breakout failure and H&S failure pattern.
 

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