Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, November 28 - 02, 2022

USDJPY (1H)
Last week we talked about taking a short position on technical rebound, and this strategy seems to have paid off.

USDJPY (1H).PNG
 
The pair has decided to form wave 5 with an ABCDE, but this, unfortunately, leaves open the door for further consolidation. From my point of view, looking at DXY, today's session will most likely not be decisive to understanding whether EURUSD will fail from these levels or whether it will have the strength to reach target 2 (1.052/1.054) and target 3 (1.060) before a bearish leg. We'll see....

EURUSD (1H)
EURUSD (1H).PNG


DOLLAR INDEX (1H)
DXY (1H).PNG
 
Morning guys,

Recent action brings tonnes of riddles now of different time scale. Here I miss discussion of monthly chart. In two words - DXY jumps above 3x3 DMA again and has not touched 3/8 monthly support that postpones B&B start. At the same time daily and lower time frame analysis suggest stronger downside (on EUR) retracement. And the major concern, could market reach B&B target around 1.0 without perfect confirmation of the pattern?

Because deep retracement usually starts from strong resistance level, but EUR has not reached them (1.0578), and turns down on Fed member Meyers comments yesterday. So, how strong the background of this downside move?

On daily chart we could get DRPO "Sell" now, we have reversal bar, and could get reverse H&S that also suggests deep retracement. But, take a look - it might be also 3-Drive "Sell", with 3rd drive precisely around 1.0580-1.06 area:
eur_d_29_11_22.png


With all this mess around, I think it would be better to start from short-term scale and then see what will happen. On 4H chart we have clear bearish background - W&R on top and perfect Evening star pattern, suggesting downside AB-CD shape on 1H chart. Approximately, to 1.0220 area:
eur_4h_29_11_22.png


So, bulls have nothing to do by far. For the bears, you could consider 4H setup and 1H picture, which also could give us a kind of H&S pattern. Although downside action could start right from here, initial stop would be better to place at least above 5/8 1.0432 level, for the case, if EUR shows AB-CD action and keep the harmony of the H&S pattern. Invalidation point, as usual stands above the top:

eur_1h_29_11_22.png
 
Brilliant to bring the DXY into the video. This week will be full of events. The bearish signs are now appearing so there is progress of clarity from last week and we are also closing a month, which could lead to some profit taking and closing eur long positions. Thanks Sive!
 
The pair has decided to form wave 5 with an ABCDE, but this, unfortunately, leaves open the door for further consolidation. From my point of view, looking at DXY, today's session will most likely not be decisive to understanding whether EURUSD will fail from these levels or whether it will have the strength to reach target 2 (1.052/1.054) and target 3 (1.060) before a bearish leg. We'll see....

EURUSD (1H)
View attachment 81233

DOLLAR INDEX (1H)
View attachment 81234
Risk "up" for eurusd.... lookig at 1h and 5' chart (DXY). Personally, I prefer to wait until today's session is over...

DXY (1H).PNG


DXY.PNG
 
Morning everybody,

So, EUR has shown minor tick down on 1H chart, as we've suggested, but now we have more and more bullish signs, although they look minor by far. Major thing that I do not like is slow action. It is not typical for bearish market, especially after sharp reversal on daily chart. This makes me worry about possible upside action.
eur_d_30_11_22.png


On 4H chart everything still looks good for the bears - W&R, potential Double Top and Evening star are still in place. But, downside action is too choppy, slow and gradual and looks more like retracement. If we would have big upside spike in a way of Evening star, then price action would was standing in very tight range.
eur_4h_30_11_22.png


The same performance we could see on 1H chart, although bounce out from the trend line has happened according with the plan. Now here we've bullish divergence, by the way.
eur_1h_30_11_22.png


It is not unique for the EUR, on Gold market we have the same. If even we will not get strong upside action, we should worry for, at least, upside AB-CD action, ,somewhere to 1.04-1.0430 area. This action doesn't break the bearish context, but could become bad surprise if you take new position right now. Personally I do not consider it by far.
Those who already have bearish position, taken yesterday, move stops to b/e at least.
 
Looks like we will not have a direction today, maybe during the US session. There are too many fundamental events scheduled for the next 3 days + month end.
 
Morning guys,

So, it seems that not occasionally we have worried yesterday. We couldn't know that, but JP comments has pushed markets higher as everybody just hangs for dovish moments but ignores all the others. We suggest that bearish sentiment has not disappeared and current action is short-term. The Monthly B&B is ripening.

Most probable destination point here is 1.0580-1.06. Here we have XOP target and 1.27 extension of downside swing that accurately envelop Monthly/Weekly K-resistance area of 1.0578-1.0595. We suggest that changes that B&B will start in December are high enough:
eur_d_01_12_22.png


Here on 4H chart we said yesterday that price action looks too slow, gradual and tight, which is not typical for the bearish market. Immediately upside breakout happened. Hopefully, JP speech effect and positive NFP numbers will be enough to support this upside action, and extend it to the target:
eur_4h_01_12_22.png


So, we do not consider any shorts by far. Bulls could think about short term trade. On 1H chart market has broken the wedge and all Fib resistance levels, so, we can't rely any more on bearish Evening pattern on 4H chart.
At the same time, the vital point for the bulls is low of recent thrust @1.0290. Market has to stay above it, and preferably above 5/8 support area of 1.0354. Now price stands at 1st 3/8 Fib level 1.0395, so you could think about position taking, if you want:
eur_1h_01_12_22.png


THe major weakness of this rally guys, is a background. It is based not on internal EUR strength but on some external injection, the boost from J. Powell...
 
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