FOREX PRO Weekly November 28- December 02, 2011

asif faryad

Sergeant
Messages
194
it could work pretty well even looking as ugly as it does =) , jjust like ugly women and alcohol,lol .[/QUOTE]

:)) like this Damien

I Suppose this also gives us a early Heads up indication of the market behaviour giving us an edge which may work,and so far the indications on Sives calls work more and sometimes not but on the whole a great average of winning calls.

See you guys going back to sleep with the UGLY WOMAN AS THE ALCHOL IS STILL IN CONTROL!!!!
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,643
EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 02, December 2011

Good morning,
on daily time frame there is nothing to add, except may be inside trading sessions. Daily trend is bullish, so continuation to the upside is very probable. Possible target is next K-resistance at 1.3605-1.3624

On 4-hour chart there are a lot of important stuff. Yesterday we've said that market has accelerated right to 1.0 target of AB=CD pattern. This kind of price action usually leads to continuation at least to 1.27 at 1.3550 or even to 1.618 at 1.3635 that makes an Agreement with daily K-resistance area.
trend is still bullish. Also take a look at MACD Histogram - momentum is growing at every peak. This is a bullish sign, we do not see reducing of momentum. Third, market stands tight near the upward resistance level and does not even show 0.382 retracement.
And finally, there could be butterfly "sell" pattern either to 1.27 around 1.3568 or 1.618 at 1.3610 - the same strong daily area.

On hourly time frame, you can find another smaller butterfly. IT's 1.618 target stands in agreement with 1.27 of larger one - around 1.3550.
Also market is forming something like bullish dynamic pressure, since market does not support bear trend and is forming higher lows. Also you can treat this pattern as classical triangle, if you want.

So, if you're bullish - your crucial level is hourly K-support at 1.3390-1.3412. If market will move through it - it will erase Butterfly, shift both trends bearish and break important support levels. Your target is 1.3550 (more probable) or even 1.36-1.3630

If you're bearish, then you can start sell small part from 1.3550 and add larger part at 1.36-1.3630 area. Stop could be placed above daily overbought 1.3684.

Or, if market will not show upward move - then wait for breakout of 1.3390-1.3412 and some acceleration down. Drop your time frame to 30-min or even 15 min chart and wait nearest 0.382 retracement to enter short.
 

Attachments

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
venelin

i agree with the levels and all that but i still think the butterfly 'diagnostic' is a stretch. am a purist ;-)
 

rashidin5178

Sergeant
Messages
244
Hi Sive,

What about our gap, still not close yet. Is it normal for market to let this week close with gap open?

Thanks and Best Regards
 

bdux97

Recruit
Messages
6
hi,Forum: Sive Morten Analysis,This forum contains his Weekly Market Overviews and Daily Video Updates with the primary focus on EUR/USD.

Techno-Fundamental Debate,Investors still unsure how to react following Wednesday’s move,Money is cheap but are we in a liquidity trap?
Global recession only in phase two; next stop China.From here, market participants are struggling to decide whether they want to build back into risk correlated assets, or run for the hills.

As a techno-fundamental strategist, I myself am torn with the markets rights now. Fundamentally, I remain extremely bearish, with the recent central bank actions only solidifying my view that the Eurozone contagion has spread well beyond the Eurozone, and that this is simply phase two of a global recession which originated in the United States back in 2008.All Quotes.Good to know.

This forum contains his Weekly Market Overviews and Daily Video Updates with the primary focus on EUR/USD.

From here, risks are for a more aggressive deterioration in the east, with China seen as the antagonist in phase three. Phase three should expose markets which have been traditionally invested in as risk correlated assets but in recent months have seen an active flow on safe haven flows away from the exposed United States and Eurozone economies.

Technically, the market seems to be offering a more open minded and clear picture. As hard as it is to turn away from the doom and gloom fundamental outlook, the technical picture is not ruling out the possibility for some upside in risk correlated assets over the coming sessions.

Best Rgds
 

bdux97

Recruit
Messages
6
bdux97,
What's the point in reposting Joel Kruger's post in Daily FX without quoting the source?[/QUOTE

I wrote all quotes,did not say it is mine but it is also my view on current situation.

THE point is view on analysis as not only this is technical forum than also fundamental as reply to post by Asif Faryad,and also to add concise view on current market conditions.It will not hurt to know few facts more.
 

asif faryad

Sergeant
Messages
194
hi,Forum: Sive Morten Analysis,This forum contains his Weekly Market Overviews and Daily Video Updates with the primary focus on EUR/USD.

Techno-Fundamental Debate,Investors still unsure how to react following Wednesday’s move,Money is cheap but are we in a liquidity trap?
Global recession only in phase two; next stop China.From here, market participants are struggling to decide whether they want to build back into risk correlated assets, or run for the hills.

As a techno-fundamental strategist, I myself am torn with the markets rights now. Fundamentally, I remain extremely bearish, with the recent central bank actions only solidifying my view that the Eurozone contagion has spread well beyond the Eurozone, and that this is simply phase two of a global recession which originated in the United States back in 2008.All Quotes.Good to know.

This forum contains his Weekly Market Overviews and Daily Video Updates with the primary focus on EUR/USD.

From here, risks are for a more aggressive deterioration in the east, with China seen as the antagonist in phase three. Phase three should expose markets which have been traditionally invested in as risk correlated assets but in recent months have seen an active flow on safe haven flows away from the exposed United States and Eurozone economies.

Technically, the market seems to be offering a more open minded and clear picture. As hard as it is to turn away from the doom and gloom fundamental outlook, the technical picture is not ruling out the possibility for some upside in risk correlated assets over the coming sessions.

Best Rgds
Thanks for reposting this article,not sure what you are trying to say.
You will need to decide how to trade your plan.
Thanks wish you best in your trading.

Asif
 

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
well, mr market is snoozing... bored out of my mind right now. no significant retrace to speak of (of the big move the other day), so i'll take that as a positive for further upside... towards 3600, 3700, dare i say 3800ish?
 
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