FOREX PRO Weekly November 28- December 02, 2011

[Damian1987]

I would say "YES".

 

[dharma1]

long-term bearish

Hi Sive , picking up the point re holding long term bearish positions , in what area would you consider placing stop-losses and what time frame and analysis would you use to calculate this please . Thanks as always.

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive, would you agree we have a B&B SELL on the S&P (Daily) in this area (1195ish)?

I would say "YES".View attachment 4388

Yes, guys, nice shot. Very good potential B&B

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive , picking up the point re holding long term bearish positions , in what area would you consider placing stop-losses and what time frame and analysis would you use to calculate this please . Thanks as always.

Hi Dharma1,
there is no unique approach to placing stop. I can ask - what is your time frame? What is your triggering pattern? What is your risk management system?
Hence, here is the answer on your second question - your trade should have positive risk/reward ratio, or at least equals to 1.0. Second, you can't enter on 5 min chart to possess yourself on monthly trend.
Usually you should use 2 time frames - higher time frame as a context for trading and target appointment and lower time frame for searching a triggering pattern and context around possible entry levels.

About first question. We've disccused it in research. Currently if market still in bear trend it should not move significantly above pivot resistance 1. If this will happen then it could be a sign of short-term deeper retracement or even reversal.
From that logic and standpoint - to place stop above pivot resistance 1 is not bad idea. But the question is do you agree with it or not. That is up to you...

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 29, November 2011

Good morning,
I will not repeat daily analysis, because it is still the same as in weekly research. Retracement now is underway. We've said that market could reach either pivot point + Fib resistance at 1.3366 or Pivot resistance 1 and daily K-area around 1.3460. Both of these scenarios will not break overall bearish context on daily time frame.

Currently there are clear signs that market will proceed higher - at least to 1.3460 area.
Because:
- 4-hour time frame is bullish;
- Gap stands unfilled for second day;
- market is forming "222" sell with AB=CD Agreement with daily Confluence resistance and pivot resistance 1 at 1.3460;

on houlry chart:
- trend is bullish;
-market acts perfect with smaller AB-CD - reached 1.0 extension, shown retracement to 0.618 Support and continue move up. This is a sign that it should reach 1.618 at 1.3456.

So, what do we have:
intraday trends are bullish that suggest deeper move up. Perfect harmony with Fib extension price action. 1.3460 includes - Daily K-resistance, pivot resistance, AB=CD 1.0 target and AB-CD 1.618 target.
Even if market will break it - it hardly will happen during first touch. So, I hope that we will have enough time to place stops to breakeven.

 

[yousuf]

hey sive, hope your well, would you say that the trend on the 4 hour chart is bullish? because i can see DiNapoli MACD crossing, but 25x5 DMA is holding the bearish trend very well. on the 4 hour chart we have seen 3 candles with wash and rinse of the 25x5 DMA.

Yousuf.

 

[Sive Morten]

hey sive, hope your well, would you say that the trend on the 4 hour chart is bullish? because i can see DiNapoli MACD crossing, but 25x5 DMA is holding the bearish trend very well. on the 4 hour chart we have seen 3 candles with wash and rinse of the 25x5 DMA.

Yousuf.

Hi Yousuf,
You should use for trend estimation either MA or MACD, but not them both. In fact, Joe has used MA's until it switched to MACD. Now we use MA, especially 25x5 on long terms just as confirmation signal of potential reversal. 3x3 for thrust identification and directional patterns.

 

[yousuf]

Thank You, sive.

 

[Triantus Shango]

EURUSD @ noon GMT

i can't believe this! just checked my trade from a remote location a couple of hours after opening it. i had to leave the house, so i let the trade ride, with S/L and T/P properly set.. and what happens? the market reverses 6 pips before hitting my T/P!!! and is now 17 pips below entry level! jesus christ! i am so pissed off right now. why, but why is there a sell-off just at 3444??? it makes no sense!

sive, do you have any idea why the market reversed right at 3444? all my levels pointed to at least 346x. what happened? anybody?

cheers and thanks.

 

[Sive Morten]

i can't believe this! just checked my trade from a remote location a couple of hours after opening it. i had to leave the house, so i let the trade ride, with S/L and T/P properly set.. and what happens? the market reverses 6 pips before hitting my T/P!!! and is now 17 pips below entry level! jesus christ! i am so pissed off right now. why, but why is there a sell-off just at 3444??? it makes no sense!

sive, do you have any idea why the market reversed right at 3444? all my levels pointed to at least 346x. what happened? anybody?

cheers and thanks.

Hi Triantus,
probably this is upward parallel channel (up border).
I can't say for 100%, but dare to suggest that probability of upward continuation still exist, since market has not touched major targets.