FOREX PRO Weekly November 28- December 02, 2011

[Triantus Shango]

alright... alright... i need to calm down. upward channel, eh? ok gotta rush home and check that. thanks, as always.

 

[yousuf]

hey sive, we have seen wash and rinse of 1.3460 (ALMOST) 1.3444 to be exact, which is the agreement area, do u think the upward movement still has probability?

 

[Damian1987]

hey sive, we have seen wash and rinse of 1.3460 (ALMOST) 1.3444 to be exact, which is the agreement area, do u think the upward movement still has probability?

the answer to that question is on page 3 mate.

 

[yousuf]

hey damian, thanks for your answer, but the question was contradictory because sive said probability is that it will continue higher as the target has not been hit, i said well, its ALMOST hit, so i dont think it will continue, and as of now the price has fallen to week open level of 1.3300. My understanding was that the retracement is over and we are ready to continue the bearish trend. if you could comment on that and if sive will too, that will confirm the short term market direction.

 

[Damian1987]

hey damian, thanks for your answer, but the question was contradictory because sive said probability is that it will continue higher as the target has not been hit, i said well, its ALMOST hit, so i dont think it will continue, and as of now the price has fallen to week open level of 1.3300. My understanding was that the retracement is over and we are ready to continue the bearish trend. if you could comment on that and if sive will too, that will confirm the short term market direction.

Allright.

You can see here two charts. 2-hour chart, and 20-min chart. For higher time frames refer yourself to Sive's charts as in my own personal opinion they are still valid.
On 2 hour chart you will see the channel we discussed earlier in this thread + .618 support holding pretty well + stocastich fade (trend is bullish and Stocastichs signal sell) + confirmed stop grabber + unconfirmed SG. On that move down to .618 I think there's a lot of ppl who were trapped thinkin we where going down. On 2 hour chart you can also see two expansions with targets near Weekly puivot resistance 1.
On 20-min time frame trend is also bullish, we should watch for price action, I dunno what is going to happen but possible butterfly 1.27 extension agrees with 1,3480 area. Will see how price reacts on 1.00 extension of AB=CD move, maybe some retracement and a new large AB=CD pattern with higher objetives around weekly pivot resistance area. Although we should not forget anything could happen and downard probability exists, maybe in the form of a 20-min gartley "222". Me myself I think there are more probabilities of going up before seeing substancial retracement.

 

[asif faryad]

I agree with Damien,looking at price action today have to wait for clear signals as probably the 95% are short so for the market to get the stops is probable! but this is the market where anything can happen,our trading plan gives us a higher probability that we may be correct but not always works like this,thats why main thing in this bussiness is dertimine your Risk!! and set your ratio accordingly and if wrong move on to the next one.

Good charts Damien like it mate!!

 

[TraderBob]

3 Drive Sell

I agree with Damien,looking at price action today have to wait for clear signals as probably the 95% are short so for the market to get the stops is probable! but this is the market where anything can happen,our trading plan gives us a higher probability that we may be correct but not always works like this,thats why main thing in this bussiness is dertimine your Risk!! and set your ratio accordingly and if wrong move on to the next one.

Good charts Damien like it mate!!

We may have a 3 drive sell (1 hr TF). First Drive at 1.3340, second at 1.3400 and the last at 1.3444 and now we have had a sell off with a small ABCD on 15 minute. A break below 1.3284 would confirm.

 

[asif faryad]

We may have a 3 drive sell (1 hr TF). First Drive at 1.3340, second at 1.3400 and the last at 1.3444 and now we have had a sell off with a small ABCD on 15 minute. A break below 1.3284 would confirm.

Yes looks Probable i have a order to open at 13450 so could be stop grabber before hitting pivot resistance 1. so lets see how market plays tomorrow.At least by having and following Sives plan we have some idea what may happen on the Market!

Thanks Bob happy trading hope you make lots of pips!

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 30, November 2011

Good morning,
On daily time frame bearish context still holds, market is forming something like flag pattern. Classical target of this patern lays below 1.31.
Price action still interesting - although market almost has reached pivot resistance 1 - it has not closed above the pivot. This adds risk to our suggestion about possible second touch of 1.3460-1.3480 area and hitting intraday targets.

4-hour time frame still holds bullish context - bullish gap stands unfilled, 0.618 support also holds well, trend is bullish. MACD Histogram shows that momentum on second top is higher that on first one - that is also bullish sign. As Trader Bob said - this could be 3-Drive "sell", because second top stands at 1.27 extension of retracement and 1.618 extension coincides with our 1.3460-1.3480 area. If we count now retracement from second top - we will see that 1.27 target stands also in the same area.
BTW, if you draw upper border a bit different - you can see bearish wedge. That's very common to 3-Drive patterns.

Hourly time frame does not give us any additional solutions to riddle. Trend is slightly bullish. Market has not quite reached 1.618 target from initial AB=CD pattern.

So, what we can do?
Since we do not have gold clues to current situation - probably it's better to wait clear signs. If market will show solid plunge down and fill the gap - we will have a lot of time to enter on nearest 382 retracement on 30-min or 60- min charts. But this enter will be safer than shorting market right now, because all trends will turn bearish and market will erase potential upward continuation patterns.
If market will continue move up - then short from 1.3460-1.3480.

If you still want to short it currently - you have to foresee potential move to 1.3480 and place stop accordingly.

 

[Triantus Shango]

We may have a 3 drive sell (1 hr TF). First Drive at 1.3340, second at 1.3400 and the last at 1.3444 and now we have had a sell off with a small ABCD on 15 minute. A break below 1.3284 would confirm.

TraderBob

I beg to differ. I went back to Pesavento&Jouflas's book, 'Trade what you see', and it doesn't look like what you are referring to on H1 satisfies the structural characteristics laid out on pages 83-84.

So I would argue we don't have a 3-drive sell pattern on H1. I expect the market to retrace back up towards the 3450/60 levels where on H1 we have a nice confluence zone of fib levels (two 70.7% ([3146-4248], [3556-3212]) bracketing one 61.8% [3614-3212], and one 23.6% [4248-3212]) and DiNapoli target level at 3463 (+ or -). That's one reason I was so surprised yesterday when the market didn't even graze those levels but turned around at 3444.

I also see on my H4 chart a daily resistance 2 (DR2) close to the aforementioned 61.8% retrace level.

Also, on H4 I see what could potentially be the beginning of the formation of the 2nd wing of a giant sell butterfly, the BC leg completed at retrace level of 88.6% and according to Harmonic Trading Vol. 1, the potential CD end point could be anywhere between 1.27 XA and 1.618 BC (please see attached chart).

But in the immediate term, the market is ranging and it looks like we might have a potential double bottom with bullish divergence on H4. I know, too early to tell, but I'll be looking for that buy signal.

We also have a nice floor at [3286-3300]. 3296 is 23.6% previous RSST from fib retrace of [3556-3212]. So if that support doesn't get breached conclusively, I'd put my money long.

Finally, is it my imagination or do we have an almost perfect inverse correlation between EURUSD and USDNOK? By the looks of USDNOK H4 and Daily, it would appear that the USD is poised for further downside in the short term. If that happens, then we are looking at the EUR strengthening. But that's very short term. Indicators on the daily are pointing lower. On H1, we might see a retrace up to the daily pivot but if that is not breached, then the downside might resume (USD down, I mean) in which case the EUR will have a good chance of hitting that 3460 area. Based on how price action develops on USDNOK, I would say in the next couple of hours we should have confirmation whether or not this is correct. (As I was rereading all this, USDNOK is getting very close to the daily pivot. 32 mins to go for the next hourly candle. If it bounces off back down that pivot line and fails to close above, dare I say the EUR long trade might be a good trade.)

Crossfingers, I am long EUR for a T/P @ 3450.

I have a bad feeling about this though. Maybe I shouldn't go long after all. But everyone is short, even my neighbor's dog! Shouldn't there be some short squeeze at some point?