FOREX PRO WEEKLY, November 29-December 03, 2010

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 30, November 2010

Good morning,
yesterday market has shown how weak it is. It couldn't even show a shallow retracement up and collapsed.
It seems that market will hit weekly pivot support 1 at 1.3033 and daily Agreement at 1.2950-1.2970 before showing meaningful retracement up. This has happened during previous retracement on daily time frame - market in the beginning of the week hit pivot support and only after that retraced to pivot point. Usually, when significant profit objectives just 100 pips lower, market does not retrace deep. As a rule it hits the target and then retraces.

Now, on hourly chart there is possible ABC bottom pattern with couple of targets - 1.3154-1.3160 Agreement and 1.3211-1.3214 also an Agreement.
Personally, I will track how market will response in this areas. I better would like to see if market will show some weakness at the first area. If it will happen, possibly we can sell there with target at least at pivot support 1 at 1.3033 or even daily Agreement.
If not, well, I will track for the second area, but it not so nice, because market will return in previous consolidation and it can lead to deeper retracement.
Track for AB and CD legs. If CD leg will appear faster than AB - it can lead to deeper retracement than 1.3150 area. I prefer to see harmonic AB-CD move.

 

[Inverse]

Thx a lot Sive...
1.2977 already been hitten.
Do you think it's sign for bullish?

thx

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD, Daily Update, Wed 01, December 2010

Good morning,

yesterday market has reached only 0.618 Fib expansion on intraday retracement and collapsed. But today's trading plan is based on the moment, that market has not quite reached a daily target around 1.2930 area.
And I think that it should hit it before market will show some nice retracement up.

Now, look at hourly chart, we have obvious trading range currently, and daily target is just below this consolidation. Personally, I will be waiting the hiting of this target by market, before initiating any Long positions. If it will be in a form of Wash&Rinse - market will hit the target and return right back in consolidation - much better.
My advise - if market will fail at upper border of trading range and move down - wait some sort of W&R in the bottom of the trading range before entering Long.

 

[MidnightRun]

Range Broken?

the range that Sive spoke about in his morning update seems to have been broken to the upside. Where do we go from here? Any ideas anybody?

 

[Damian1987]

Im a complete newbie, but my guess is that we are heading towards pivot point at 1.3409 . Anyways I would wait for further instruction and some news releases to see if 1.31 holds, etc etc.

 

[MidnightRun]

Hi yasser Hashim. Thanks for your contribution. Please I will love to know more about your system.

Yasser,
What is the Zwinner system?
Thank you.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 02, December 2010

Good morning,

yesterday market has shown nice thrust on intraday time frames that leads to forming a bullish engulfing pattern on daily chart.
Personally, I still worry about close posession of 100% target at daily time frame and the fact that in still has not reached by the market.
But if you're bullish and intend to take this signal that's fine - here is your levels to watch for:
First of all, the one thing that you do not want to see is a taken over the lows of engulfing pattern by the price. In this case it will fail. There are couple of targets on daily time frame - 1.3280 is a first Fib resistance and 1.3418-1.3470 very strong resistance that includes Daily Confluence resistance, daily and monthly pivots and daily overbought. Bearsh should hold this area, if the are still in charge.
Now, if you're intraday trader, then look at hourly chart.
If you're bullish, you can enter on shallow retracement. Market has reached 61.8% target and retraced to hourly confluence support, now it continues move up. the next target is 100% expansion at 1.3214 and ultimate today target is 1.618% at 1.3318 and Agreement with first daily fib resistance.

If you're bearish, then you would like to see one thing - market should break C-point on hourly chart and 5/8 Fib support at 1.3050. If this will happen, you can take a scalp trade with the target at 1.2950 - daily 100% Fib expansion. You should not marry any position, because market will be close to daily oversold and at profit objective. It should retrace after that.

 

[m0z1]

re: aud/usd

Hello Sive

As per todays price action is to correct to assume that the H&S pattern is cancelled the price has gone back above the neck line? But the AB-CD pattern is still valid.

If you could let us know about this it will be great.

Thanks
Mili

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 03, December 2010

Good morning,
yesterday market has continued its gradual choppy upside move. This is not an impulse trade and looks like retracement.
Today the NFP release, and there are rumors that it should be better than expected. This could lead to short covering up move and we should watch for couple of levels
The first level is 1.3280-1.3318 - daily Fib resistance and intraday Agreement.
The second area, that is much stronger and my preferable for establishing short positions is 1.3468-1.3473 daily Confluence resistance. The bears should hold this area if they are still control the market.
So, watch for Sell signals on lower time frames around these areas.

 

[pckeys]

Audcad

Follow your daily video religiously, have been trying to absorb as much of dunapolis methods and your own with harmonic patterns.

Would be interested in your view on the AUDCAD..
Looks like an LAL B&B in the weekly with nice rejection off the 38 (though not closed yet) after an ABCD sell retrace.
ABCD buy on daily aswell as a head and shoulder forming on 4hr.. and I reading these right ?
Thanks for your continuing efforts.. you are a godsend.regards

Peter in AUS