FOREX PRO Weekly October 10-14, 2011

[Geert Anthonis]

What now???

Good morning,

On daily time frame there is nothing new to discuss - just remember today's level of overbought - 1.3755

So, that's my trading plan - wait of completing point of Butterfly at 1.3725 - place stop above daily overbought (1.3755). This gives you tremendous risk/reward ratio and exceptional probability that your stop will not be triggered since it above daily overbought.

Hi Sive,

At present the market stands at 1.3805 (Spot) it has been a bit higher, but now looks like it might start to go down still we have crossed the overbought level at 1.3755 and even the 1.68 fib extention from the butterfly. Do we hold out for the retrachment or is there some news I have not picked up on on CNN, BBC or Bloomberg that has changed the fundamentals.

I opened one position at 1.3728 and another at 1.3755 both with a stop at 1.3798 which I have since increased to 1.3868. Do you think the 1.3868 will be reached before retracement starts? Will there be a retracement? Or do I close now, take the loss and lick my wounds?

Thanks in advance you for your reply and insight.

Kind regards,

Geert

 

[BackSpace]

Have we overlooked a few things ?

Hi Sive,

Have we overlooked a few things (see attached chart) !?

- Bullish Gartley on M15
- Reverse or Hidden bullish divergence
- Previous high around 13800

What are your thoughts ?

Kind regards, BackSpace

 

[Triantus Shango]

Hi Sive,

Have we overlooked a few things (see attached chart) !?

- Bullish Gartley on M15
- Reverse or Hidden bullish divergence
- Previous high around 13800

What are your thoughts ?

Kind regards, BackSpace

backspace

i've got 2 questions for you:

1- the BC leg of your gartely shows a retracement of 0.47. now, if i am not mistaken, i recall reading in those books about harmonic trading that 0.47 is not a harmonic number; therefore, wouldn't that invalidate the so-called gartley?

2- how is AVA as a broker? do they provide a true ECN with DMA/STP? how is execution speed? any difference depending on the amount of lots you trade?

cheers
triantus

 

[Triantus Shango]

Future market direction

looking at the daily chart (SPOT), the daily candle is barely touching the upper bollinger band (standard deviation = 2). now, let's review what we know from a fundamental perspective.

most economic news is bad. even if the slovaks vote in favor of the EFSF expansion, europe is still in the hole. the reason i mention this is because it seems to me that for the market to thrust significantly upwards on the daily, we would need at least some kind of good news to trigger risk-on in the markets, right?

now, how likley is that? my gut feeling is that it is not very likely. therefore, before we see a thrust up on the daily chart, we will first see a pullback towards the mid bollinger line, which stands right now at 35169--time = 11.37 GMT OCT 12.

therefore, i wager we should expect a pullback towards the 3520 level, which is slightly above the K-support area that sive mentioned at 3480.

so i will add to my shorts and give sacrificial offerings to the pip god.

 

[BackSpace]

Gartley and Fib

Hi Triantus,

I use Fib levels losely, or as areas since there are always (small) deviations depending on which Broker you are with..
Also I look more at the pattern itself than the Fib dimensions. See, in this case AB = CD almost to the pip.

AVA is not an ECN. On a regular basis I get requotes. So there is some delay in order processing. I have not found the best broker, yet.
I notice no difference with different lot sizes.

I'm not sure what DMA/STP is ?

Kind regards, BackSpace

 

[Triantus Shango]

aanother trade setup on H4

on H4: another quick trade setup would be to target short 1 STD dev BB (bollinger band) which comes at around 3700 and cover there. then watch if it bounces or not.

or if mr market cuts through the 1 STD dev BB like butter, then next target is the mid BB at around 3580. and wait and see for a bounce from the mid BB, possibly leading to a double top with MACD or williams %R divergence. if the latter, then short again full throttle.

any thoughts about this strategy? am i deluded, nuts, or just mini-soros ;-) ?

 

[Triantus Shango]

Hi Triantus,

I use Fib levels losely, or as areas since there are always (small) deviations depending on which Broker you are with..
Also I look more at the pattern itself than the Fib dimensions. See, in this case AB = CD almost to the pip.

AVA is not an ECN. On a regular basis I get requotes. So there is some delay in order processing. I have not found the best broker, yet.
I notice no difference with different lot sizes.

I'm not sure what DMA/STP is ?

Kind regards, BackSpace

DMA = direct market access
STP = straight through processing

DMA/STP implies no dealing desk, no requotes. by the way, MT4 was designed to help market maker brokers (not non-dealing desk brokers) requote, spike, control the feed their customers were getting. i know, charting is good.

brokers who claim to be true ECNs with DMA/STP:

any who rely on INTEGRAL (google it) such as FinFx, and Pepperstone, i think.
other ECN brokers: MBTrading, Dukascopy, PFGBest, and i forget the rest.

what i'd like is to be able to try FXAll but they don't accept retail accounts.

 

[BackSpace]

Charts

on H4: another quick trade setup would be to target short 1 STD dev BB (bollinger band) which comes at around 3700 and cover there. then watch if it bounces or not.

or if mr market cuts through the 1 STD dev BB like butter, then next target is the mid BB at around 3580. and wait and see for a bounce from the mid BB, possibly leading to a double top with MACD or williams %R divergence. if the latter, then short again full throttle.

any thoughts about this strategy? am i deluded, nuts, or just mini-soros ;-) ?

Hi Triantus,

Could you possibly post some charts ?

Kind regards, BackSpace

 

[Triantus Shango]

Hi Triantus,

Could you possibly post some charts ?

Kind regards, BackSpace

unfortunately i don't have a regular PC available right now. just my iPad and thanks to steve jobs i can't upload any screenshots. i tried but the few apps out there aren't working properly and i haven't jailbroken the iPad, thus no access to the file system.

 

[Joshnix]

15 minute chart about to close with a drpo! @9:30 AM EST