FOREX PRO WEEKLY, October 11-15, 2010

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,
Is Gbp/Usd forcast still bullish today, or will it get to our daily support 2 today before bullish.

Hi, Erha
I do not understand absolutely, what're you talking about. What is support 2?
Just read my comment - in general, if market will move above weekly pivot, then I expect that market should reach 1.6080 area roughly,
If it will push to the downside from it - then, probably we can count on move lower.
I said that weekly pivot is a beacon for today

 

[adams1]

Where to enter short today for Gbp/Usd incase it went that way?

Hi Sive,
Gbp/Usd is taking some time to move upward.meanwhile I did not read your report on time yesterday and now I am in an hedge position.So I want to know your present view on Gbp/Usd.Where to enter short today for Gbp/Usd incase it goes that direction?
I am expecting your reply.

Warmest regards
Adamson Erha

 

[Sive Morten]

GBP/USD Daily Update, Thu 14, October 2010

Good morning,
3-Drive Sell pattern is continuing to form on daily time frame. This pattern suggests that major sell-off should appear in area 1.6080-1.61.

Until this target has not been achieved we can enter on a long side and make short-term intraday scalp trade.
As I've said, the safer way to enter Long, is to wait until market will return above weekly pivot. It gives us a confidence that previous move to weekly pivot support 1 was just a retracement. So that has happened.

You can enter long, just keep your risk reasonable, and be sure that market has not returned below weekly pivot again. Personally I like 1.5915-1.5918 hourly confluence support, trend line support for enter long with stops in 1.5850-1.5870 area. (look at the chart)

 

[adams1]

Is it 3 d drive sell pattern that is going on ?

Hi Sive,
Please , Is it 3 d drive sell pattern that is going on ? I just need to know sir.I am expecting your reply.

Regards
Adamson Erha

 

[rasto007]

3 drive sell

Hello Sive.

the 3 drive sell has almost reached the target of 1.6070/1.6080. How do we determine when is a safe point to go short? Do this kind of patern usually reach the target to the pip?

Rasto

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,
Please , Is it 3 d drive sell pattern that is going on ? I just need to know sir.I am expecting your reply.

Regards
Adamson Erha

Erha, please re-read the daily part of analysis in the beginning of this thread. I've described 3-Drive sell pattern in details.
First and second drives are already formed. Currently 3d Drive is forming. the target is 1.6070-1.6080 area. There we should watch for some signs of weakness.

Hello Sive.

the 3 drive sell has almost reached the target of 1.6070/1.6080. How do we determine when is a safe point to go short? Do this kind of patern usually reach the target to the pip?

Rasto

Hi Rasto, I guess not to the pip, because this is the market...
In general, I think that it should be a bit wider area 1.6070-1.61, because we also have 100% expansion target at 1.6098.
As for any pattern we should see market reaction first, and not just jump in on a short side. When market will reach this area - look for intraday charts - 60 min, or 4-hour. If you'll see, something that confirms our assumption about 3-Drive, may be H&S, for expample. Then yes, we can enter...

 

[rasto007]

Erha, please re-read the daily part of analysis in the beginning of this thread. I've described 3-Drive sell pattern in details.
First and second drives are already formed. Currently 3d Drive is forming. the target is 1.6070-1.6080 area. There we should watch for some signs of weakness.



Hi Rasto, I guess not to the pip, because this is the market...
In general, I think that it should be a bit wider area 1.6070-1.61, because we also have 100% expansion target at 1.6098.
As for any pattern we should see market reaction first, and not just jump in on a short side. When market will reach this area - look for intraday charts - 60 min, or 4-hour. If you'll see, something that confirms our assumption about 3-Drive, may be H&S, for expample. Then yes, we can enter...

Would you say that even though the market has not reached 1.6070, or entered the 1.6070 - 1.61 area, by several pips, it still a good context for sell, if i see some weekness on intraday? or in other words, does the market have to cross the area in order for the signal to have its good probablity?

 

[adams1]

Thanks Sive

Good day Sive,
Thanks for your post, the 3 drive sell pattern is almost there.According to your post today, I think traders are waiting for the price to meet the trendline you draw so that it will reach the 1.6070-1.61 area of which if this is achieved I will be very happy bcus I think this is the best point for me to remove my hedge position.
I am praying over here for the price to get to at least 1.6069 before selling.

Warmest regard
Adamson Erha

 

[Sive Morten]

Would you say that even though the market has not reached 1.6070, or entered the 1.6070 - 1.61 area, by several pips, it still a good context for sell, if i see some weekness on intraday? or in other words, does the market have to cross the area in order for the signal to have its good probablity?

I suppose so, because if you'll try to enter prior reaching the 3-Drive or ABC target, then you take additional risk of move continuation against you.
besides, you should place far stop, because you take more risk, enter the market before the pattern has been completed.

But this should be done (I mean crossing of the target area) only from the risk point of view and from a probability view - it's safer...

 

[Sive Morten]

GBP/USD Daily Update, Fri 15, October 2010

Good morning,

Market has reached yesterday weekly pivot resistance 1 and 0.618 expansion target. Currently I think, that market can show another leg up, before the 3-Drive sell will be accomplished. Then we should watch - will some reverse signals appear on lower time frames.
Meanwhile, I can't exclude the possibility of shallow retracement to 1.5950 area before upmove continuation...