Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, October 14 - 18, 2019

sveckar22

Corporal
Messages
79
Yes, I know this book as well. It is really good. Indeed this question is worthy to read something. By the way in Jouflas/Pessavento book there is also some information on pshychology and money management. At the same time - the mind of a human being is a very thin and personal sphere. I suppose it can't be
standardized. These books on trading pshychology could give you some ideas and overall direction to work with your mentality. Because as many traders I saw - as many different ways of "mind work" exists. My personal experience stands on time - how long you deal with the markets. As longer you deal with them - as less psychological question remains. But, as I said this is unique for every person. There is no some one-size-fits-all method. That's the conclusion that I come to.


Thank you. On rational level I understand all this things, and I read the books, listened to videos of douglas, but there is still something missing that I will work on.
 

Robban68

Corporal
Messages
97
We are entering into a heavy resistance zone. It will be interesting to see if we will get another leg down to form a kind of double bottom to aim a higher bounce than 1.114. On Friday we will probably get the answer since we could get an SG on Weekly that might support this scenario.
Same old trading plan still valid....
 

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Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
14,227
We are entering into a heavy resistance zone. It will be interesting to see if we will get another leg down to form a kind of double bottom to aim a higher bounce than 1.114. On Friday we will probably get the answer since we could get an SG on Weekly that might support this scenario.
Same old trading plan still valid....

Yes, I also do not exclude this scenario. EUR has completed our entry setup perfectly, but it still stands inside of Friday's action. Price is not at overbought and has no strong Fib levels till 1.11 K-resistance area. The only resistance that exists here is MPR1 and OP target itself.

Here we have two scenarios on the table. First is direct action to XOP and K-resistance, second - deeper retracement first and then upside continuation.
eur_d_16_10_19.png


Why we talk about deeper retracement? Because of the same pattern - potential reverse H&S on 4H chart. This is one of the possible scenarios currently. It depends on Friday's top. If EUR will move above it - direct action higher to 1.11-1.1135 area will be more probable. If not - EUR could drop back to 1.0950, major 5/8 Fib support to form the bottom of right arm:
eur_4h_16_10_19.png


What action could we take right now. Our entry point was achieved perfectly - right from K-support EUR has jumped up. If you have long position - grab 30-50% profit and move stop to breakeven on the rest. In this case odds turn in your favor anyway.

Those who has no position - wait. Solid retracement should happen either now or after daily XOP. This will be chance for position taking.
eur_1h_16_10_19.png
 

sveckar22

Corporal
Messages
79
Hello guys, I would like to give you a short update on my AUD/USD setup I was talking about on Sunday.

On daily chart market hit 0,618 FIB retracement level, and showed respect to it by bouncing from it. Which could be a potential C point of this potential ABC to COP, OP or XOP Pattern.

16.10.19 AUD D.PNG




We have a symmetrical AB=CD to the downside and a bullish engulfing candle on 4H time frame chart. I am willing to take a risk of 35 pips to find out if this will indeed be the C point and we will get a move at least to COP target.

16.10.19 AUD 4H.PNG
 

minimax

1st Lieutenant
Messages
1,456
Euro fufilled 5 days daily range but there are stops just few pips above so I think pressure on USD will continue a bit..
 

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Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
14,227
Morning guys,

Let's keep up with EUR analysis. Yesterday we've talked on retracement, because this is the thing that daily traders wait. Our trading plan doesn't suggest taking long position on daily EUR by far, despite that context is bullish because of strong resistance right ahead of the market. And yesterday we talked on when retracement could start.

As EUR follows up, it means that retracement has chances to begin in 1.11-1.1136 area, which is K-resistance and XOP target. Thus, EUR is entering in turbulence zone.

In general situation is tricky. EUR and GBP both stand in similar conditions - both at daily/weekly K-resistance areas and OP target. At the same time we have weekly DRPO "Sell" on Gold/EUR chart, which means that either gold has to drop or EUR should rise. Gold chart doesn't suggest yet strong collapse. Thus, it is confusing a bit and makes difficult to unite all these issues in one picture.
eur_d_17_10_19.png


Hopefully we have potential pattern on 4H chart that we could follow. Now it becomes more accurate as neckline becomes flatter. This is reverse H&S and for daily traders the bottom of right arm is a key point to make a decision:
eur_4h_17_10_19.png


Speaking on short position - it is possible only for scalp traders, but even now it seems to early for that. EUR keeps accurately upside tendency inside the channel, forming harmonic retracements. Despite price touches K-resistance on daily - we do not have any bearish reversal patterns yet. Thus, for short entry it is also better to wait more appropriate context - breaking of upside tendency or harmonic retracement, appearing of clear bearish pattern, maybe once XOP will be reached etc.

So, let's keep watching.
eur_1h_17_10_19.png
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
14,227
Morning everybody,

Shortly speaking - setup for the week is done as EUR has hit daily XOP. Maybe it makes sense to think on profit taking, or at least stop management. Market has done few things that significantly increase probability of pullback - upside reversal swing, reaching of XOP, reaching of daily Overbought. K-resistance is broken, but I suspect that it still could be valid, as breakout happened to complete XOP target.

Overall picture suggests at least 3/8 retracement. It means that for daily traders no changes in trading plan - wait for retracement.
eur_d_18_10_19.png


Here on 4H chart we have two major support levels to keep an eye on. First is, K-support around 1.1040-1.1050 area, second is 1.10 major 5/8 level. We can't ignore the latter, because of daily bullish reversal swing and 4H potential shape of reverse H&S pattern. Both make possible deep retracement.
eur_4h_18_10_19.png
 

Robban68

Corporal
Messages
97
I would like a push to 1.1165 before the pullback. Then it is aligned with the 1.084x target as well. However, it is some tricky to keep postion over the weekend due to tomorrows vote in UK. A major GAP warning on Sunday night, especially in GBP/USD..
 

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minimax

1st Lieutenant
Messages
1,456
I would like a push to 1.1165 before the pullback.
A litle unusual to turn before 50 thats why I think USA session can push up to 1,1180 and after that cash in some of this week earnings... but I dont expect much lower than 1,1080
 

soul rebel

Corporal
Messages
118
Thank you. On rational level I understand all this things, and I read the books, listened to videos of douglas, but there is still something missing that I will work on.

Hi, I resonate with your sense of 'something lacking' and wanted to let you know I read the same books. I have come across another book which at first glance might not look as if it has much to offer traders, the book is 'The Power Of Now' by Eckhart Tolle which is a guide to spiritual enlightenment and self development. Just like Joe said in the video trading is a 'counter-intuitive event' we are not wired to trade. The essential teaching of 'The Power Of Now' is as the tittle suggests and it very simply and effectively details the workings of the human mind and has been instrumental in my ability to focus on the here and now without letting the past (fear) and future (greed) overtake my judgement while trading. The author provides very simple practical techniques that are helping me in my trading and in general to stay focused with a clear mind.
 
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