Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, October 17 - 21, 2022

They are the only way to improve in any field (if, of course, after making a mistake, a person sees it and corrects it, and this last is the most difficult, but this is the only true way of development).
Yes, you're absolutely right. When we do trades we have to recognize whether we have done a mistake or not. Not every loss trade is mistake, because trading is about probability. Mistake is when you break your trading plan, as J. DiNapoli calls it "Trading bad". At the same time, you could do everything with the plan and still get the loss, but it not necessary will be a mistake, just because there are a lot factors that stand out of our control.
Morning guys,

Before we start with the EUR - here is our Telegram channel. Telegram has IOS, Android and PC/Mac applications - choose what you like more. I usually use mobile version.

I put light description in today's video, how to use it, why we've decided to start it etc. Actually we've talked about this yesterday here. It should be fun to read it, as we keep news and videos very short there, but it will complete the total picture of ongoing processes that we usually discuss in our weekly reports. Call friends to join if you will find it interesting.

Now to the EUR... in general market was able to follow with bullish scenario. As we've said in weekend - this is the moment of truth and bulls have to pull the trigger if they want to participate. Yesterday performance was nice and now we consider COP target that also makes Agreement with daily K-resistance area inside of 0.99-1.0 range:

On 4H chart we have minor AB-CD pattern, based on reversal bar action. Now market hits the OP and minor pullback should happen. Which should give second chance to long entry. Here probably we should consider XOP as probable target, just because it is close to daily COP...

On 1H chart, since we have "222" Sell, it makes sense to keep an eye on K-support level for 2nd chance to enter long, as minimum target of "222" pattern. Since market is going to daily COP, which is minor target, we should not get here deep pullback. Downside breakout of K-area will be worrying sign. In this case it would be better to out in a moment of upside pullback from 5/8 0.9725 support level. (If your stop will not be triggered of course). Once again, it is nothing to do for the bears by far.
Morning guys,

So, as you can see EUR goes nowhere, so everything that we've said yesterday, the plan, is still valid. Today I would like to take a look at long-term charts of currencies that we rare discuss.

Let's start from NZD - here we see that H&S is failing. Kiwi doesn't drop lower because of monthly oversold, but I wouldn't be surprise if we will see it around 0.5 area of 2008 lows within few months.

BTW, compare it to AUD - aussie shows absolutely phenomenal resistance to USD strength. While all other currencies, GBP, EUR, JPY are below major lows - AUD is still stand about it, and even XOP has not been touched yet. Although AUD is also the victim of global clash flows into USD - I repeat again that it is one among best currencies to invest long term due Australia fundamentals. When crisis turns to final stage, we should think about investing in AUD stocks and bonds...

Next one is JPY. Here is we have a lot of fun. BoJ has made anemic chance to hold currency around 145 with intervention. Results you could see on the chart - market is challenging OP and 150 level:

If AUD among the best currencies - the JPY is among the worst. Japan has terrible fundamentals, I'll try to explain today in Telegram. We every time speak about UK problems, EU, the US, but maybe Japan will trigger domino effect?
Technically we see strong acceleration to OP. Yes some pullback is possible, but usually this performance suggests action to XOP, which is around 180? Do you think that it is impossible? I don't think so...

Correspondingly, recall our GBP/JPY cross. We have upside standing target, suggesting that JPY performance has to be faster as we expect both currencies to drop. Thus, our GBP target is 0.95. It means that JPY has to fall faster, and from that standpoint, 180 target also looks possible:

We do not provide today clear trading signals, but hopefully this discussion will be interesting and useful to you.
Master Sive.

Can you post again the explanation of OP and COP, what it means and how to get to it.

Master Sive.

Can you post again the explanation of OP and COP, what it means and how to get to it.

Sure, OP is just an "objective point, which is 1.0 AB=CD pattern target, COP is "Contracted OP" which is 0.618 AB-CD target. XOP, correspondingly is "Extended OP" and 1.618 AB-CD target.
Morning guys,

So, EUR has completed first stage of our trading plan - 3/8 intraday pullback. Although all markets now feel the pressure of rising US interest rate, which are above 4% already and short-term ones near 5%, despite that DXY stands flat - EUR has own supportive factor. It is coming 21st of October ECB meeting, where, supposedly rate should be increased for 75 bp.

Daily trend stands bullish, and normally, bullish market should keep going higher, because even minor COP target has not been reached yet. So with normal bullish market, it should not be deeper retracement.

Thus, if you consider long entry you have three ways to do it. Here we haven't got any reversal patterns, except maybe, the wedge. Thus, you could buy against lows, wait for reversal pattern or wait for a bit higher price action and then try to buy on minor retracement here.

Downside breakout of K-area will not be vital, but still, will be bearish sign. In fact, it could lead to appearing of downside butterfly on daily chart. Thus, if EUR will fail around K-area, I would stay aside from taking new long position for awhile.
It is coming 21st of October ECB meeting, where, supposedly rate should be increased for 75 bp.

Am I wrong that it will be the 27th of October?

You're right, 27th is Thu. They decide on Thursdays... 21st of October is the day when BoE should have start QT by selling commercial bonds off the balance. Now they have postponed start to 1st of November.
Morning guys,

EUR did shows the bounce, and it was not bad, but still, it seems that party is over. Yesterday we've got record high Germany PPI, although it is not a surprise in general. But also positive change in Initial claims has made possible Fed members to come with hawkish statements as well. Next Fed rate move probably will crush markets again.

On EUR daily chart, formally we still have bullish trend and it still has theoretically chances to move up, but performance on intraday charts shows that odds are not too high:

On 4H chart both attempt to move higher where immediately sold-off and indecision candle has been broken down:

Thus, choice is up to you guys, if you still keep long. Formally level is still valid and, say, even double bottom could be formed here, but secondary signs are not in favor of upside continuation. Now I wouldn't consider taking of a new longs by far. IMO downside action in a way of AB-CD looks more probable, but I'm not daring to be the truth of last resort.