FOREX PRO Weekly October 24-28, 2011

[nicolebobbin]

Did FPA has problem last few days ? I couldn't access until now

 

[Sive Morten]

Yes, guys, you're absolutely right about stop losses.
Another important issue is that SL allows you to be strong psychologicaly. When your stop has been triggered - you freely can shift to another trade, and another possiblity. But when you hold drawdown - you can't think adequately.

thanks for ur analysis, i must confess u ve made me a better trader, in this week's pivot i got 1.3819 which is different 4rm urs 1.3803, pls i want to know wher i went wrong, i used ur calculation of classical pivot which i believe u use also
high= 1.3913
close= 1.3893
low= 1.3652
pls help me

Hi Justolufemi, I suppose that you've done no mistake. This is the result of quote difference. Since I use futures charts and quotes, my quotes are slightly lower than on spot market. Use your pivots, I suppose that they are correct in terms of spot market. Ask others to confirm my assumption...

Did FPA has problem last few days ? I couldn't access until now

Hi Nicole,
yes this was just nightmare Ddos attack almost for 3 days in a row...

 

[Damian1987]

Hourly trend is bullish, here you can see both butterflies, that we’ve discussed during the week. Also you can see that first butterfly, was a bit extended beyond 1.618 extension before it has started to work properly. The same could happen with the second one – 1.618 target stands at 1.3917, while 1.27 AB-CD extension at 1.3963. So, market can reach that level before any signs of retracement will appear. But I would like to show you not that butterflies, but 1.618 3-Drive “Sell” pattern that is forming on 4-hour chart, especially if we will take into consideration 4-hour MACD action – double divergence. I guess you can find it by yourself now. That’s an excellent educational example by the way, of harmonic patterns compounding. In our FPA School you will find whole part dedicated to this topic (but probably it will be released a bit later).
Still will it work or not – I will not dare to suggest, but no doubt we have to keep an eye on it...

Hey sive..Im quoting this part of the analysis that comes after the "hourly" sub-title in the first page. This is last week comments , I guess you forgot to erase it...I'm just pointing it out, it could mess up some peoples thoughts. Actual hourly analysis is developed after the hourly chart.

 

[Triantus Shango]

Short targets

hey guys, weird how the site was down quite a bit these past couple days...

anyway, here is what i see on H4: mid-BB (std dev 2.0) comes in at 3809, close enough to sive's level of 3802. if we find no SPPT there, then lower-BB is at 3694, close enough to 3702 as mentioned by sive. hopefully it will not stop there and land at 3650 ;-)

mr market (god damn him!) is now down about 120 pips from today's high at 3954 or so (3834 at time of writing).

still need MACD confirmation, but since i don't expect anything uplifting out of europe, i'll wager that we're looking at a typical bounce off high-BB with touch down on the low-BB. perhaps bounce back up again toward the high-BB, like in a channel of sorts. but who knows right? so in that spirit, i added to my shorts.

 

[Triantus Shango]

What possible reason would you have for ever widening your stop?

Sorry for the tone of this message, but widening stops just because your trade is going against you is ludicrous.

yes yes indeed. god knows i've been caught with my pants down too many times doing just this... BUT sometimes intuition comes to the rescue and you suddenly realize you misplaced the damn stop and mr market is just being late with his christmas gift. ;-)

 

[Triantus Shango]

Trade plan question for EURCHF

hi sive

i got a quick question regarding risk. in light of the actions of the SNB in early SEPT when they pegged the EURCHF at 1.20, and recent rumours that they will do it again, raising the peg to 1.40, and the swiss unions and commercial interests clamoring for the SNB to do it, what is the risk in assuming that the bottom now stands at 1.20 and therefore enter long because 1.20 will hold?

is this almost a slam dunk, almost risk free? that is to say, if there is no intervention, (EURCHF currently at 1.2273) the market could drop all the way to 1.20 (worst case), but since this is peg, then it would bounce up again and surely regain those 273 pips for at least a break even trade.

is this a fair assumption? or am i totally ignorant of how pegs work?

if i am right, then this could be 1700 pips in a matter of minutes if the SNB intervenes again!

what am i missing here?

as always, thanks.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hey sive..Im quoting this part of the analysis that comes after the "hourly" sub-title in the first page. This is last week comments , I guess you forgot to erase it...I'm just pointing it out, it could mess up some peoples thoughts. Actual hourly analysis is developed after the hourly chart.

Hi Damian, you're right
thanks, I've fixed it.

hi sive

i got a quick question regarding risk. in light of the actions of the SNB in early SEPT when they pegged the EURCHF at 1.20, and recent rumours that they will do it again, raising the peg to 1.40, and the swiss unions and commercial interests clamoring for the SNB to do it, what is the risk in assuming that the bottom now stands at 1.20 and therefore enter long because 1.20 will hold?

is this almost a slam dunk, almost risk free? that is to say, if there is no intervention, (EURCHF currently at 1.2273) the market could drop all the way to 1.20 (worst case), but since this is peg, then it would bounce up again and surely regain those 273 pips for at least a break even trade.

is this a fair assumption? or am i totally ignorant of how pegs work?

if i am right, then this could be 1700 pips in a matter of minutes if the SNB intervenes again!

what am i missing here?

as always, thanks.

Hi Triantus,
there is a proverb on markets exists: "If something is obvious then it's obviously wrong". Usually I use it when see really "easy money".
Currenty I can say nothing definite, since do not have reliable information about this possible 1.20 level hike by SNB to 1.40. But swings that you're talking about are tremendous. You can try to trade this rumor - but use minimum lot, control your risk.
This is not quite 'mine' trade in terms of personality, so hardly my comment will be useful.

 

[rashidin5178]

yes yes indeed. god knows i've been caught with my pants down too many times doing just this... BUT sometimes intuition comes to the rescue and you suddenly realize you misplaced the damn stop and mr market is just being late with his christmas gift. ;-)

Hi Triantus Shango,

In my opinion, if market go to our initial direction after stop been triggered, just let it go. Maybe we don't have a luck on that day. But again it is easy to say but very difficult to implement it.:unhappy:

Scalping maybe a good thing to do after that if market allowed it. I always do it when price close below 25x5 DMA (for sell) on M5, M15 with stop if price closed above 3x3 DMA or vice versa for buy trade.

Lets try, scalpers!

Thanks and Best Regards

 

[Triantus Shango]

thanks for the tip rashidin. unfortunately i don't have the dinapoli indicators. MBTrading doesn't provide them on their proprietary platform or MT4. and if i may ask--and let me extend the question to all who read sive's analysis here--coud you guys tell me a little about your experience with your broker? broker name? how is the execution? requotes?

thanks.

 

[rashidin5178]

thanks for the tip rashidin. unfortunately i don't have the dinapoli indicators. MBTrading doesn't provide them on their proprietary platform or MT4. and if i may ask--and let me extend the question to all who read sive's analysis here--coud you guys tell me a little about your experience with your broker? broker name? how is the execution? requotes?

thanks.

I also don't have DiNapoli indicator. If you have Moving Average indicator, just add it and set your MA to 3 with 3 displacement and 25 MA with 5 displacement. This will be good enough for scalp. But sometimes you must also rely on stoch. Also you should confirm with the trend on higher timeframes and suit with Sive analysis. Very often price will explode (normally in my experience, it will take out previous low/high) immediately or after 1 to 2 bar on that trend for respective timeframe you trade. When possible, move your stop to b/e. If you found something wrong, better you get out as soon as possible and wait for another trade.

But again, this is very suitable for scalping due to timeframe I trade. Also I believe, this method is suitable for all timeframes. Lets do some practice.

Anyway I use Ikofx as my broker. The service is good, no spread widen during news, swap free, fast deposit and withdrawal (have their local depositor in my country to manage deposit and withdrawal), very helpful if you got trouble (at least so far) and no leverage restructure. Although this broker is not quite popular, I'm comfortable with them. But I recommend do not deposit too much capital because this is backyard broker (if I not mistaken).

Thanks and Best Regards