Triantus Shango
Sergeant Major
- Messages
- 1,371
re thrust identification, i honestly don't understand why we need a MA because doesn't candle size and relative positions within the BBs already provide that information, don't they?
again, the problem i have with MAs is that they just show what you can already see by just looking at the price action relative to a trend line or channel lines. and when displaying the price as a line instead of candles, the trend becomes even more visible if there is a trend.
i don't see that MAs add that much value to the info already present. the only thing i would concede is valuable on longer time frames are MA crossovers when multiple MAs are displayed. for ex., the 10, 20, 50, 100 MAs crossing over each other at the beginning of a trend. well, i shouldn't say 'at the beginning' because by the time they cross, the trend usually is already under way. MAs lag. most TIs lag as we know. but even so, i never consider MAs in my decision process. i mean, MA overlays on the price chart. but of course i can't help but rely on MAs inderectly since the mid-BB is a MA, MACD is just MA relationships too and so on.
what we need is some neural net to do some AI analysis of the price action. there is a company out there that sells an API package that allows you to use off-the-shelf neural nets, recombine them whichever way you want, train them, code your own, and so on. a little pricey... can't remember exactly but somewhere in the $1,000s. can't remember the company name... but if someone is interested, let me know. i can find out later.
i agree. fib analysis is just awesome. what's awesome is how they highlight the hidden structure in natural patterns. the very structure of reality seems to be based on PHI and the golden ratio, so it doesn't surprise me that financial markets being part of such a PHI-based reality should also demonstrate golden ratio relationships.
but at the end of the day, i believe that it is just all a self-fulfilling profecy. people learn about the ratios or whatever pattern, and they start trading according to the levels identified by that pattern thus reinforcing the meaning of said levels and patterns. what soros calls a self-reflexive process, if memory serves.
i am currently working my way through it. will PDF it at some point. absolutely invaluable info. we most definitely owe a big 'thank you' to sive. one of these days, when we are loaded, i hope that we, i.e. FPA members who benefit so much from felix's vision in creating this awesome resource, show our gratitude by throwing a huge bash on a yacht somewhere cool like monte-carlo and have sive and the whole FPA team as guests of honor. now that would be really cool IMHO.
