Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, October 29 - 02, 2018

[Sive Morten]

Hi sive , thanks for the great job . Now i receive daily update text . Thanks i appreciate that, and understand how you got the grabber now.

please , what is xop and how do you get that? i have try to follow your charts but could not figure it out even when i use Fibonacci.

Anthony, XOP comes from DiNapoli terms "eXtended Objective Point" This is 1.618 Fib AB-CD extension. On the chart I always put letters A, B and C to indicate what tops/bottoms I use for extension calculation. Downside It calculates as XOP = C-1.618*(A-B). Upside it will be C+1.618 (B-A)

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

When Stag said that it might be reversal right near the corner, I've taken a look at EUR with more crutiny and found one thing that I do not like right now.

At first glance, if you will take a look at EUR chart - everything stands as we've suggested recently. Market has moved slightly lower, OP target stands ahead and no visible support levels exist, except may be WPS1. And now watch this -

This is December contract of Dollar Index. OP target already has been hit and market has shown W&R of tops . So, the scenario that we would like to see on EUR is already completed at DXY. In this circumstances, I do not want deal with EUR for few session, at least until this divergence exists and would better focus on something else.

For example, today we could get B&B daily setup on GBP. I already have talked about it 2 days ago. Despite that our XOP target has not been hit yet, GBP shows strong upside retracement. Recall that our Agreement area around OP has been broken without respect. It means that market tends to re-test it from the opposite side. Also this is 3/8 major Fib resistance. Theoretically B&B should start somewhere around it. Another attractive moment here is XOP. It's really big chances that B&B will not stop at its minimal target, but proceed to XOP.

On 4 H chart our minor XOP has been hit and then upside channel breakout has happened. Daily Fib level also is K-area on 4H chart:

1H chart shows multiple target around 1.29 area. They are 1.618 Butterfly AB=CD pattern and 1.618 of smaller AB-CD. So, 1.2880-1.29 will be nice resistance cluster where downside action could start.

Since we have strong upside action and it is not very comfortable to sell. WE could drop our time frame to 15-min chart after completion of all these targets and watch for bearish reversal pattern, or even more - wait for starting of downside action and then try to catch some bearish continuation pattern, such as "222" Sell'.

 

[Robban68]

I believe Monthly end and Yesterdays SOMA day prevented the "mandatory pre-NFP" bounce to happen earlier this week, so I think the ongoing bounce it most welcome to take position for tomorow. With yesterdays new daily low for 2018 I will be looking for at least a test of this low before a higher bounce will happen.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

So, our decision to not deal with EUR short positions was correct, as EUR mostly is lagging to Dollar index. It repeats the same action but EUR has not completed setup, that we actually have got on DXY. Yesterday, action was so strong that GBP was not able to start B&B - only minor reaction has followed.
Today we're back to EUR again...
On daily chart we again need to take a look at DXY. As on EUR as on DXY we have MACD divergence and market right now stands at first 3/8 Fib support (on DXY). This is also WPP on EUR. Thus, today we could watch for pullback, as it could give us chance to take position:

On 4H chart of EUR we see that it also has reached 3/8 Fib resistance, downside channel is broken, our butterfly is completed:

So, overall shape agrees with idea of possible reverse H&S pattern, besides butterfy very often becomes part of it. It means that we could wait for pullback to 1/2-5/8 Fib supports, we could say it with more precision when retracement will start. This is our major setup. Whether to make scalp short trades out from neckline - it is not forbidden of course, but again, it cares more risk, as yesterday with B&B setup.

 

[Stag]

The advance proved to be corrective and the Euro turned down as expected. Now I see the early signs of a reversal is around the corner. Breaking impulsively above 1.136 is the first step, then breaking the key resistance at 1.1420 would signal the bottom may be in. This would indicate the decline from 1.1621 may be over.

Guys, being humble and patient are essential to financial markets.

The early signs of a reversal proved themselves to be correct and the Euro broke both key resistances.

There is no evidence a temporary top is in but the Euro may find a top at nearby levels. If so we need to see a 3 wave setback towards the red zone before advancing higher. Note that the impulsive looking advance we see unfolding can be part of a larger ABC correction and may end far below 1.1621. However, if it is going to be a reversal, prices will break 1.1621 impulsively. We just don't know yet.

 

[Deltoid88]

Long entries on EUR and GBP worked perfectly, closed them both, now looking for retracement to open new longs.

Scalp trade, excellent short entry on GBP. Expecting retracement to rectangle zone.