Lolly Tripathy
Sergeant Major
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Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, September 02 - 06, 2019
- Thread starter Sive Morten
- Start date
Will do top down analysis at end of the week..
Situation changes all the time. Euro is very sensative and moves from correction to correction so I think we might not hit my target to establish weekly fractal above 1,1164. Leg up is not impulsive so in nature can not be CFlat of 1st weekly move down but as 4th of ending diagonal, especially IF price action stays below 1,1164. So nothing for sure but direction - South, below parity in next weeks/months. Cable also should go down if NFP will be USD supportive and the leg up si CFlat, so take care. USDIndx also could have another count...
EU GDP could trigger C wave up and move could turn around with NFP.
EU GDP could trigger C wave up and move could turn around with NFP.
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Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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Morning guys,
Today will be extremely intersting session. Here is why. Technically, situation on EUR looks bullish. We talked about it yesterday - on daily it looks like big bullish engulfing pattern, which theoretically should lead to upside continuation. But this is only on surface.
First is - we've got bearish grabber, that we've mentioned yesterday. Second one and most important thing - recall the background of this rally on EUR. When you try to find something important - you can't do this, because this is nothing. What we have - some relief in HK unrest, new spiral of US-Sino tariffs talks in October. That's all. Nothing important. This is the reason why I do not want to buy EUR today, although technically we should consider this setup.
The dark side of the moon is - good recent ADP report, coming EU GDP and NFP today, overall strong long-term bearish EUR background. This is the reason why I would prefer to sell, based on the grabber... This is risky because you have to sell against short-term upside momentum. So, if you're conservative trader - do nothing, wait for data and take action on next week, when we have all information.
Another negative side of this "Sell" trade is high dependence on data. If it will be not good or bad enough, reaction could be muted. So, this trade potentially is rather risky. But if everything will happen as we expect - you will get position at best price.
On 4H chart EUR was not able to break above the MPP and 5/8 level and now is coiling around WPP as well. Here grabber takes the shape of bearish engulfing pattern:
On 1H chart is our trading setup. It is simple - taking position at upside retracement of the grabber. Another advantage is tight stop - you do not need it to place too far. Alternitavely you could use Stop "Sell" order on breakout of 1.10-1.1025 area.
Today will be extremely intersting session. Here is why. Technically, situation on EUR looks bullish. We talked about it yesterday - on daily it looks like big bullish engulfing pattern, which theoretically should lead to upside continuation. But this is only on surface.
First is - we've got bearish grabber, that we've mentioned yesterday. Second one and most important thing - recall the background of this rally on EUR. When you try to find something important - you can't do this, because this is nothing. What we have - some relief in HK unrest, new spiral of US-Sino tariffs talks in October. That's all. Nothing important. This is the reason why I do not want to buy EUR today, although technically we should consider this setup.
The dark side of the moon is - good recent ADP report, coming EU GDP and NFP today, overall strong long-term bearish EUR background. This is the reason why I would prefer to sell, based on the grabber... This is risky because you have to sell against short-term upside momentum. So, if you're conservative trader - do nothing, wait for data and take action on next week, when we have all information.
Another negative side of this "Sell" trade is high dependence on data. If it will be not good or bad enough, reaction could be muted. So, this trade potentially is rather risky. But if everything will happen as we expect - you will get position at best price.
On 4H chart EUR was not able to break above the MPP and 5/8 level and now is coiling around WPP as well. Here grabber takes the shape of bearish engulfing pattern:
On 1H chart is our trading setup. It is simple - taking position at upside retracement of the grabber. Another advantage is tight stop - you do not need it to place too far. Alternitavely you could use Stop "Sell" order on breakout of 1.10-1.1025 area.
Lolly Tripathy
Sergeant Major
- Messages
- 515
most welcome dear
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