FOREX PRO Weekly September 03-07, 2012

Hi Sive,

Nice analysis as usual. Thanks a lot, Sir.

I just made a couple of observations lately regarding price gap (difference from previous close and current bar open exactly) especially on M5/M1 and found that normally market (EURUSD) do not leave the gap too long to fill. Still I'm afraid to declare this is very true but the results from my poor observation tell me that it is not a bad idea to consider it whenever we got some uncertainty in price direction. If we look back on M1 TF we can see that price do not fill yet 1.2495 around 6.14 am on 31st August 2012. I know gap is not necessarily be closed on short time period, but based on my previous observations, the probability is quite high to see retracement could be true at least to 1.2495-1.2400 area. So, I absolutely agree with you about this retracement. After that, anything could happen.

Another thing that in my opinion should be take care is MACD bearish divergence on daily TF and it happen around resistance/confluence area. For me normally price will going south but as always, who am I to say definitely. Hope you can comment a little bit, Sir.

Have a good weekend, Sir.

Thanks and Best Regards.
Rashidin

Hi Rashidin,
It's difficult for me to comment this, since I do not trade on so short-term frames. But if you have such observation, you could be right.
None of us could say definitely, as you mentioned correctly. So, we know levels to watch - probably it will be neccesary to monitor a bit first in the Monday beginning.
 
interesting month

Normally September is one of the most difficult months in both currencies and stock markets and as the US elections heat up I can see lots of volatility. By the way, Sive, thanks for your ongoing contribution that is so educational and informative.

It seems to me that the Fed will do what you say as the American economy has grown slightly during this Euro crisis and an unemployment rate way lower than Spain's for example. However, everything is relative and who knows the spin that will be believed in the marketplace. I believe the US federal reserve 's main QE trigger is deflation or low inflation and we are at the breaking point. That is why I see the same statements for the last two months.

Since a lot of hedge fund traders look at how the interest rates are on 10 year bonds in Spain and given that the
ECB will not target "yield caps" as has been speculated...but would rather target volatility .... i would assume that means keeping spanish italian bonds in some sort of trading band that is deemed acceptable. If that does not come to pass and interest rates spike again EURUSD falls.

Similarly if the Euro banking system adds to the balance sheet and the US does not price favors the US (by my analysis).

Of course since the US is running out of money and needs more this favors price towards the euro.

It would be nice to get your comments on the Sept 12th German decision as well.

Given all this I can see lots of volatility.

Happy trading!
 
Hi Sive,

On Friday you mentioned about a possible stop grabber on Gold.
Gold is at 1690 today. At what price should we consider selling?
Thanks
Bernard
 
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Hi Sive,

On Friday you mentioned about a possible stop grabber on Gold.
Gold is at 1690 today. At what price should we consider selling?
Thanks
Bernard

Hi Bernard,
I've talked about possible Stop grabber on EUR. On Gold I've said that if breakout will fail, we could get W&R of 1500 lows. But on EUR we have not got Stop grabber.
 
Chop Chop Chop Chop :( thanks sive sir for guide us today.thanks i read ur post daily otherwise i am a dead man :(
 
Hi Guys,

Just for your info, Gartley Buy on H1/H4 TF is already formed right now or it maybe transform to butterfly buy with 1.272 exp around 1.2444 and 1.618 exp around 1.2393. Hope we will make some green pips on that.

Thanks and Best Regards.
rashidin
 
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