FOREX PRO Weekly September 05-09, 2011

[lavasecco]

bullish butterfly on the daily ?

Hello Mr Morten

thank you for the great work

but what about this huge daily bullish butterfly ?

usually the target is the broken B point at 14380-90


thanks in advance Sir

 

[lavasecco]

bullish crab not a bullish butterfly

2011-09-04_1302 - lavasecco's library

i apologise i dont know how to post the link

 

[Rubin Hood]

Questions

Hi Sive,

Hope you don't mind me asking my questions again from the previous thread as maybe you missed them. I'm really curious about your thoughts. I hear a lot of conspiracy talk but no evidence. If you have any tangible proof please share it. Thanks!

------------------

Sive, I have questions about what you wrote in your weekly preview:

I suspect, that US have some actuating levers, may be political, may be financial or both to weak EUR. All that panic with Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy and now France has come from rating agencies. S&P is US company, and I can’t believe that they can’t use it for own purposes.
​

Is there any evidence of this suspicion?

If so, why isn't it public, and why are European politicians not doing anything about it? US rating agencies and media causing the greatest crisis of the EU and we only have suspicions, and EU politicians not even pointing out the source of the panic?

to weaken EUR​

If you mean "weaken the EUR *currency*", they aren't very successful as it's the dollar that has been weakening since mid-2010. I thought the US was weakening *their* currency deliberately, to lessen their debt burden and help their export. Or did you mean to weaken the European Union as one of their most important competitors in the global scene?

If we will take a look at rate decreasing by S&P to AA+, it will come out with quite other colors – as a preparation of dollar abandoning policy and greatest fraud of all times.​

How would this fraud happen? E.g. destroy the dollar, and thereby get rid of all dollar-related obligations, and blame it all on a ratings agency or some foreign entity? What is your scenario?

How could hundreds (or more) of US politicians orchestrate such a fraud without a single leak or whistleblower?

Thank you Sive. The reason I'm asking is that I want to be able to differentiate your suspicion from conspiracy theories. Thanks!

------------------

 

[Triantus Shango]

lavasecco

you can attach the picture to your post by doing the following:

under the 'quick reply' text box click the 'go advanced' button. a new page is displayed in your browser with a text entry box. scroll down and look under the text entry box until you find a 'Manage attachement' link or button (can't remember now). anyway, click on that and you'll be able to choose a file in a folder on your pc to upload together with your post.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

Thanks for your brilliant research.

What are the levels of daily and H4 oversold currently?

Sorry to ask.

Have a nice weekend anyway.

Thanks and Best Regards

Hi, Rashidin,
for today (5th Sept) daily is 1.3995
4-hour - 1.4094 (but only for current 4 hours - now is 8:00 Cent. Europ. Time)

Hello Mr Morten

thank you for the great work

but what about this huge daily bullish butterfly ?

usually the target is the broken B point at 14380-90


thanks in advance Sir

2011-09-04_1302 - lavasecco's library

i apologise i dont know how to post the link

Hi Lavesco,
Unfortunately, I can't take a look at your chart. Which one butterfly you call bullish - Butterfly "Sell" or "Buy"?
If you speak about "sell" with target around 1.4750 (we've discussed it), currently it is under question, since price action does not support it. But formally, it still valid, because initial swing of butterfly still stands intact.

If you speak about "buy", then it has been cancelled since market has established new high and has erased initial swing of Butterfly.

Hi Sive,

Hope you don't mind me asking my questions again from the previous thread as maybe you missed them. I'm really curious about your thoughts. I hear a lot of conspiracy talk but no evidence. If you have any tangible proof please share it. Thanks!

------------------

Hi Rubin,
I'm sorry, I've seen your post, but then twisting a and turning with work and forgot about it. Sure, let's discuss...

Sive, I have questions about what you wrote in your weekly preview:

I suspect, that US have some actuating levers, may be political, may be financial or both to weak EUR. All that panic with Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy and now France has come from rating agencies. S&P is US company, and I can’t believe that they can’t use it for own purposes.
​

Is there any evidence of this suspicion?

If so, why isn't it public, and why are European politicians not doing anything about it? US rating agencies and media causing the greatest crisis of the EU and we only have suspicions, and EU politicians not even pointing out the source of the panic?

First of all, I want to say that there could not be any 100% official evidence, since if they suddenly appear - all World has known that already and that could lead to unpredictable consequences...
All I try to do here is to push you to thinking a bit.
Just think, why crisis in EU has happened right when US economy has fallen in deep pit and does not see an exit yet? Let's assume that this was a subprime crisis, that lead to lack of liquidity - but take a look at markets now - there is a huge liquidity here, and world does not know where to apply it - all that investors could do is to create a bubbles on Gold, for instance...
So that's not the case. Now imagine how far EUR could rise now, if there was no debt crisis in EU. You may ask and so what - this is good for US - weak dollar during the crisis. That's right, but this weakness should be reasonable and not too large. But here it could lead to huge devaluation, and you can imagine how China could react on that. This was a real danger for US.

to weaken EUR​

If you mean "weaken the EUR *currency*", they aren't very successful as it's the dollar that has been weakening since mid-2010. I thought the US was weakening *their* currency deliberately, to lessen their debt burden and help their export. Or did you mean to weaken the European Union as one of their most important competitors in the global scene?

You just have confirmed that I've said above, right?
If dollar shows weaken even with EU turmoil - how it could be, if EU feel OK - in that case dollar could turn not just to "positive weakness" that is useful for economy, but to real collapse. But now, when EU economy has fallen in collapse - we see artifical balance - it looks like nothing drastically has changed.

If we will take a look at rate decreasing by S&P to AA+, it will come out with quite other colors – as a preparation of dollar abandoning policy and greatest fraud of all times.​

How would this fraud happen? E.g. destroy the dollar, and thereby get rid of all dollar-related obligations, and blame it all on a ratings agency or some foreign entity? What is your scenario?

Tell me if you will know...
Well, there is a history, that we have, right? How US abandoned golden standard? Nixon just told on TV - that's all.
My scenario that as any frauds - this will happen very fast. Someday you will rise in the morning, and see that dollar has been devalued with multiple times.
Probably it will start from Asian markets, since Japan and China are greatest holders of all US stuff.
More and more people now understand that US supply all World's products for free. All that they do is just give paper insead. Who wants to work for free?
I suppose, that we will come close to this, when China and Japan will spend their dollars on some national programms, at least mostly. Japan already has started to do that. During previous week they trasfer 100 Bln (if I do not mistake) from reserves to corporate loans. These loans will be spend of M&A activity and repairing of economy. China now spend a lot on military programs. They spend dollars.
Also, pay attention that this topic becomes more popular, so Mass Media gradually prepares world to that.

How could hundreds (or more) of US politicians orchestrate such a fraud without a single leak or whistleblower?

There were - from large economists, even congressmen.
The problem is in collective consciousness. Americans can't believe in that. They are habbited to spend, spend and spend when, actually they have no money. Credit cards, personal loans, etc... They do not want and do not believe that someday it could over.
And politicians are use it - they speak about strong dollar etc.. But this is not depend from them already. Think by yourself - reducing of budget deficit for 2 Bln per year, if just your national debt is 14 Trln and cost of all programs - 50Trln dollars. This is just drop in sea. So it depends on when other countries will tell "that's enough" and particularly when China will get tired to work for free, and when it will spend most part of dollars first.

Anyway this is just invitation to discussion, I do not pretend on any absolute opinion, just wanted you to think a bit.

Now is my turn to ask questions...
1. Why Fed Reserve has stopped to publish M3 money supply indicator in 2006?
2. The real indicators of inflation are commodity prices. There is one index exists that calls CRB. Calculate inflation based on it, or just use the same PPI or CPI, but on y/y basis, and you'll see that current inflation in US, compares to previous year around 4-6% per year.
Personally I expect strong and significant increase in interest rates somewhere in 2H of 2012 - 1H 2013.

Here is the monthly chart of CRB, btw. Let's take a look:
1. Inflation, based on commodities in 2007 was 66% annually - right before the crisis
2. Inflation in 2009-2011 is 45% annually, right after the crisis.
3. The question - why we were needed that crisis at all?

In fact, this was a great money supply sterilization. What is financial markets do? they tight cash, since cash stands in some papers. When suddenly this papers do not exist anymore or loose 95 % of their value, where is the cash? Nowhere, precisely it remains in real assets - such as houses, if we speak about mortgage bonds, and real cash supply reduces right at amount of this real estate value. So, US just gather all dollar cash from all world (since they buy this MBS securities), started chain reaction of bancruptcies and money remains in domestic real estate market. Furthermore, this real estate now is a banks' property. Here is how those assets that belonged to different world authorities start belong to US banks...

The same was in 1929. the great depression. During one day banks become an owners of all US economy and companies. Super, right?

Now is your turn to prove that this was not the case...

 

[Triantus Shango]

hi guys

the OTC spot market has dropped further 40-50 pips from the end point of the buy butterfly. however, as i keep looking at USD/INX H1 chart, USD/INX seems poised for a drop as major indicators are turning downwards and USD/INX is currently back towards the middle of the BB. should it cross the SMA 20 and continue downwards, shouldn't we then see a bounce back in USD pairs?

furthermore, price is at fib 61.8 [3838-4517] on daily chart. should the market respect that level then we could have a bounce back to around 4265-4290. makes sense?

 

[rashidin5178]

RRT on M15?

Hi, Rashidin,
for today (5th Sept) daily is 1.3995
4-hour - 1.4094 (but only for current 4 hours - now is 8:00 Cent. Europ. Time)

Thanks a lot Sir for your answer.
I have difficulties to obtain overbought/oversold level. Maybe I'm not competence enough and lack of confidence.

By the way, I think RRT is in the making on M15. Am I right, Sir?

Thanks and Best Regards.

 

[Damian1987]

Hi Sive and Rubin Hood,

I hope you both had a nice weekend. I just wanted to tell you guys that even though I only get like 10% of your economics conversation I still find it very useful and pedagogic.

hi guys

the OTC spot market has dropped further 40-50 pips from the end point of the buy butterfly. however, as i keep looking at USD/INX H1 chart, USD/INX seems poised for a drop as major indicators are turning downwards and USD/INX is currently back towards the middle of the BB. should it cross the SMA 20 and continue downwards, shouldn't we then see a bounce back in USD pairs?

furthermore, price is at fib 61.8 [3838-4517] on daily chart. should the market respect that level then we could have a bounce back to around 4265-4290. makes sense?

Hey Triantus, Could you please post some charts????? thx!

 

[Sive Morten]

furthermore, price is at fib 61.8 [3838-4517] on daily chart. should the market respect that level then we could have a bounce back to around 4265-4290. makes sense?

Hi Triantus, why not, it is very probable.

Thanks a lot Sir for your answer.
I have difficulties to obtain overbought/oversold level. Maybe I'm not competence enough and lack of confidence.

By the way, I think RRT is in the making on M15. Am I right, Sir?

Thanks and Best Regards.

Yep, nice RRT with Divergence, btw...

 

[Triantus Shango]

EURUSD_daily_fiblevels + butterflies chart

sure thing damian.... completely forgot about it. here you go.