Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, September 09 - 13, 2019

sveckar22

Private, 1st Class
Messages
68
Morning guys,

To be honest - it is not much to talk about today. EUR and GBP stand in tight range. Theoretically, we could talk about NZD setup but we already discussed it yesterday.

It seems that on EUR we turn to ECB expectation. Market stands flat showing lazy action. Hardly we will get any breakout until Thu. Tomorrow we have US CPI data, but reaction probably will be weak, as CPI is lagging indicator and hardly it will trigger strong action.

Price action still stands inside the range of the grabber and below daily K-resistance area. As always - the vital levels are the top and bottom of consolidation. Since the breakout will follow on ECB speech, it probably will be strong.
View attachment 44322

As consolidation consists of narrowing siwngs - both directions are possible. For example, here on 4H chart it is easy to imagine upside butterfly, if we will get upside breakout. Thus ,if you have bullish view and expect upside breakout - your vital point is 1.1010 lows around WPP:
View attachment 44323

For the bears - the top of the grabber is vital point. In fact, on 1H chart we have triangle. Some patterns were formed inside of it, but nothing really interesting. Here again, we could consider using of Stop entry orders on your prefferable direction, either Stop "Sell" around 1.1005 or Stop 'Buy" around 1.1075 area. Or, do nothing but wait for final direction and then act accordingly. The advantage of stop orders is that you could use both of them (or OCO feature). Onces one will be triggered, you could cancel another manually.

It is not forbidden of course to anticipate breakout and take position inside the triangle, but - it gives worse risk/reward ratio, second - we do not have clear patterns inside... This makes process of position taking more like a gambling.
View attachment 44324
Thank you.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,991
Morning everybody,

EUR stands flat and it seems we were correct about it - it just waits for ECB tomorrow. So, let's take a look at GBP. The price action that we have brings some adjustments to our initial trading plan that we've made in weekly report.

On daily chart we haven't got major retracement immediately on Monday, but market has formed bullish reversal candle instead. Price has not touched major 3/8 Fib support as well, so we got neither B&B nor DRPO patterns. It doesn't break overall view and retracement will come later, but first GBP probably should hit major daily resistance area around 1.25 level:
gbp_d_11_09_19.png


Since upward action was really fast, we have extended AB-CD pattern. Its COP target stands at 1.2477 and creates Agreement with daily K-resistance Area. This is our nearest objective point to watch for.

Here we have bearish wedge pattern, but daily price action makes it too risky to take short position inside of it. Besides, on 4H chart we have signs of bullish dynamic pressure. Thus, it would be better to consider short entry from daily K-level, and long entry as downside retracement will be completed:
gbp_4h_11_09_19.png
 

minimax

2nd Lieutenant
Messages
1,311
Euro pierced 100% lenght of wave 1ED, BUT I can not read marked structure as impulsive wave a as 1st part of this construction but as ZZ (abc) so I am ready for move into the structure not just correction as 4th into 1st, just 15 pips. It is plenty of time for such move, but I will be also ready for next break of current low.
Second move up, more unlikely but not impossible, is this one on 1H chart.
 

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ED SCHAFFER

Corporal
Messages
72
If price breaka 161,8 of wave y it will become an impulse and we will see new high almost certain.

10.08 CET: Was I wrong or The Market is playing with traders?
Hi Minimax > Your 2nd chart proves my main point that the BIG WHALES or BIG MONEY BOYS have tricked the retail traders again. All these markets are now being manipulated by the BIG MONEY. Always be on the lookout for their tricks & very quick reversals. That is exactly why nowadays I mainly trade intraday short term momentum swings. That does not mean that you too can not profitably trade the markets, because you certainly can. Just be aware that they are in control of all of these major markets on a short term to intermediate term basis & are definitely out to trap &/or stop hunt all the retail trader "suckers" any way they can, that is, any trader who is not a part of their own ELITE GROUP. I recommend trying out trailing stops if your broker allows them if you are not already using them & see if they will help your trading. Cheerio & welcome to the real modern world of BIG BOY dominated trading.
 
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Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,991
Morning guys,

Finally we've got an action on EUR and in general it confirms our suggestion. Technically, daily grabber starts to work. Now it is difficult to make longer forecast as a lot of things depend on today's ECB statement. So, we try to identify crucial levels that should help to identify direction:
eur_d_12_09_19.png


On 4H chart market hits solid support area that incudes Fib level, AB=CD target and butterfly 1.618 extension. It means that it is high odds that we will get at 3/8 upside pullback at least. If market indeed is bearish, it should turn down again later:
eur_4h_12_09_19.png


Thus, 1H K-resistance level of 1.1022-1.1030 will be crucial today. Bearish market should stay below it and re-establish downside action. Conversely if sentiment will change (say, on ECB statement) - this level will be broken. Depending on your view - either take short around K-resistance level (if you're bearish) or, wait for upside breakout and search chances to go long (if you're bullish). 1.1030 is a border between short-term bullish and bearish sentiment.
eur_1h_12_09_19.png
 

ED SCHAFFER

Corporal
Messages
72
Unlikely move happened but formation/construction is not correct so I expect W&R and piercing LL @1,0926. This would be 3ED and if it does not drop out of screen I expect pullback to confirm 1ED. It is enough time for such outcome but if pullback just continues I would treat it as 3ED placed.
Hi Minimax > Very accurate forecast as EUR did indeed drop down to 1.0927 @ 8:47 am EST before rebounding smartly according to TradingView. Just 0.0001 above your prediction @ 1.0926. This shows once again to always "leave a little money on the table" because the BIG WHALES/BIG MONEY BOYS know these targets just as well as retail traders do & they will often push price to within just a pip or so of the projected target price. My experience tells me to take profits just before the target price is hit if a possible rebound could occur. Hope this will help. Cheerio.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,991
Morning everybody,

So, guys it was really dramatic action yesterday and emotional shake for markets. It is amazing but our grabber setup has worked by external impact of ECB driving factor. Then we've got drastic sentiment shift, which we will analyze in weekend, as usual.

Meantime, in short-term perspective upside action should continue. First is, we have the same new grabber on Dollar index (as on EUR) but it has not completed yet, which means that EUR should proceed higher as well. Second, and more important thing - we have opposite breakout of pennant consolidation, which previosly was broken down. In such situations market follows in new direction:
eur_d_13_09_19.png


In fact, here we could suggest Double Bottom pattern, which could lead EUR to 1.1250 area. Still, as we do not have W&R of recent lows - we also could use AB-CD extensions. Thus, OP already is reached, next one is XOP around 1.1182. Thus, we will get some meaningful retracement, or better "222" Buy pattern, we could consider long entry at some Fib support :
eur_4h_13_09_19.png
 
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