Thank you.Morning guys,
To be honest - it is not much to talk about today. EUR and GBP stand in tight range. Theoretically, we could talk about NZD setup but we already discussed it yesterday.
It seems that on EUR we turn to ECB expectation. Market stands flat showing lazy action. Hardly we will get any breakout until Thu. Tomorrow we have US CPI data, but reaction probably will be weak, as CPI is lagging indicator and hardly it will trigger strong action.
Price action still stands inside the range of the grabber and below daily K-resistance area. As always - the vital levels are the top and bottom of consolidation. Since the breakout will follow on ECB speech, it probably will be strong.
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As consolidation consists of narrowing siwngs - both directions are possible. For example, here on 4H chart it is easy to imagine upside butterfly, if we will get upside breakout. Thus ,if you have bullish view and expect upside breakout - your vital point is 1.1010 lows around WPP:
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For the bears - the top of the grabber is vital point. In fact, on 1H chart we have triangle. Some patterns were formed inside of it, but nothing really interesting. Here again, we could consider using of Stop entry orders on your prefferable direction, either Stop "Sell" around 1.1005 or Stop 'Buy" around 1.1075 area. Or, do nothing but wait for final direction and then act accordingly. The advantage of stop orders is that you could use both of them (or OCO feature). Onces one will be triggered, you could cancel another manually.
It is not forbidden of course to anticipate breakout and take position inside the triangle, but - it gives worse risk/reward ratio, second - we do not have clear patterns inside... This makes process of position taking more like a gambling.
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Hi Minimax > Your 2nd chart proves my main point that the BIG WHALES or BIG MONEY BOYS have tricked the retail traders again. All these markets are now being manipulated by the BIG MONEY. Always be on the lookout for their tricks & very quick reversals. That is exactly why nowadays I mainly trade intraday short term momentum swings. That does not mean that you too can not profitably trade the markets, because you certainly can. Just be aware that they are in control of all of these major markets on a short term to intermediate term basis & are definitely out to trap &/or stop hunt all the retail trader "suckers" any way they can, that is, any trader who is not a part of their own ELITE GROUP. I recommend trying out trailing stops if your broker allows them if you are not already using them & see if they will help your trading. Cheerio & welcome to the real modern world of BIG BOY dominated trading.If price breaka 161,8 of wave y it will become an impulse and we will see new high almost certain.
10.08 CET: Was I wrong or The Market is playing with traders?
Hi Minimax > Very accurate forecast as EUR did indeed drop down to 1.0927 @ 8:47 am EST before rebounding smartly according to TradingView. Just 0.0001 above your prediction @ 1.0926. This shows once again to always "leave a little money on the table" because the BIG WHALES/BIG MONEY BOYS know these targets just as well as retail traders do & they will often push price to within just a pip or so of the projected target price. My experience tells me to take profits just before the target price is hit if a possible rebound could occur. Hope this will help. Cheerio.Unlikely move happened but formation/construction is not correct so I expect W&R and piercing LL @1,0926. This would be 3ED and if it does not drop out of screen I expect pullback to confirm 1ED. It is enough time for such outcome but if pullback just continues I would treat it as 3ED placed.