FOREX PRO WEEKLY, September 10-14, 2018

Morning guys,

Situation on EUR looks tricky today, because formally market has created new lows compares to grabber's one, but reality and common sense tells that bullish context is valid. The price action that we see shows a lot of bullish patterns that overcome effect of grabbers destruction. In fact, this was not a destruction but W&R of its lows, which bullish pattern by itself. Second issue - we have divergence with dollar index, where this grabber is still valid and was not Washed out by NFP release. This W&R has happened right at major 50% Fib level:
eur_d_11_09_18.png


On intraday charts we have other bullish signs. First is triangle which is bullish continuation pattern. W&R was also a failure attempt of breakout, and after that we see good upside acceleration. It means that now we do not take in consideration our 1.1465 Agreement area, and downside AB-CD pattern. Also, chances to get "222" Buy that we've discussed in weekend are diminished, because it was based on breakout but we didn't get it. Finally here we have nice MACD bullish div. as well:
eur_4h_11_09_18.png


On hourly chart this action reminds Double Bottom. AB-CD pattern on the slope has OP target that stands above the neckline, and this moment increases chances on breakout. Now price is challenging previous consolidation right under neckline, if it will break there, this will be 50% of success and significantly increase chances on upside breakout. Target of this Double Bottom is 1.18 area:
eur_1h_11_09_18.png


Although targets could change a bit as well as shape of price action, but what we could say right now definitely, it is not time to go short right now and our scenario with "222" has not been confirmed. Thus, our primary view by far is upside continuation right from current levels.
 
Morning guys,

Situation on EUR looks tricky today, because formally market has created new lows compares to grabber's one, but reality and common sense tells that bullish context is valid.

Greetings guys, it's been a while since my last post here. The situation is tricky indeed now in the Euro, so let me throw in my two cents and show my WP based interpretation.

Yesterday’s low in the Euro was 1.1526, just 4 pips below where wave circle w of B ended. The advance starting from there seems to be corective in nature. This make me think that the recovery can be part of a more complex structure so at time of writing it is too early to say the drop is complete. If 1.1578 breaks, I anticipate further decline in EURUSD to new lows for this cycle to complete somwhere in the 1.151x - 1.146x area. If prices keep advancing higher poking above 1.166 followed by a reversal and a close back below on H4 or above, this scenario would remain a valid option.


EU_180911_h4.gif
 
Greetings guys, it's been a while since my last post here. The situation is tricky indeed now in the Euro, so let me throw in my two cents and show my WP based interpretation.

Yesterday’s low in the Euro was 1.1526, just 4 pips below where wave circle w of B ended. The advance starting from there seems to be corective in nature. This make me think that the recovery can be part of a more complex structure so at time of writing it is too early to say the drop is complete. If 1.1578 breaks, I anticipate further decline in EURUSD to new lows for this cycle to complete somwhere in the 1.151x - 1.146x area. If prices keep advancing higher poking above 1.166 followed by a reversal and a close back below on H4 or above, this scenario would remain a valid option.


View attachment 39330

Thank you so much dear friend Stag ..
 
Hi everybody,

It's always plessure when you open forum and see new Stag's post. Thanks, mate!

My view is mostly the same, with one minor detail. Harmonic patterns point on 1.1535 area also which could be potential reversal...

On daily we have nothing new yet. While market stands above recent lows after W&R has been formed - it keeps chances on immediate upward continuation. Now is the major concern whether it will happen or not:
eur_d_12_09_18.png


As we've estimated yesterday, on 4H we have triangle, which potentially is continuation pattern. Still, yesterday attempt of upside breakout has failed and now we will watch for second chance in two possible ways.
First way could be formed within few hours here, if EUR will form bullish grabber. It could lead to upside reversal in the middle of triangle, which is classical sign of preparation to upside breakout.
eur_4h_12_09_18.png


Second, if no 4H grabber wil lbe formed, our major scenario is AB-CD retracement to 1.1535 area, which is also MPP. In result, we could get "222" Buy pattern. CD leg could take the shape of 1.618 Butterfly:
eur_30m_12_09_18.png


If market will still drop through the lows and break triangle down - we're going to OP target of 4H AB-CD, which creates at Agreement with major 5/8 support around 1.1465, that corresponds to Stag's levels as well...
 
@alexoptimistic, one of the definitions of Fundamental Analysis from google search is - "Fundamental analysis is a way of looking at the forex market by analyzing economic, social, and "political forces" that may affect the supply and demand of an asset. ......" . So Sive "pointing to" and "reporting" political happenings that might affect market trends is perfectly in line.


Well said Mike,
Actually I remember all our talks about double-edged effect when I post some political links. Indeed I try to minimize political part in analysis.
But sometimes we can't escape it, mostly when some events happen that support (or not support) our view on current vector, say in EU-US relations.
In fact, I do not talk something "special" and "unique". Just read briefly zero hedge or any other "contrary opinion" portal and you find a lot of people who see the same things...
 
@alexoptimistic, one of the definitions of Fundamental Analysis from google search is - "Fundamental analysis is a way of looking at the forex market by analyzing economic, social, and "political forces" that may affect the supply and demand of an asset. ......" . So Sive "pointing to" and "reporting" political happenings that might affect market trends is perfectly in line.
Thanks buddy,
I'm glad that most people understand this.
 
Morning guys,

So, our scenario with 4H grabbers has worked properly and market stands closely under 1.1650 resistance. Today actually we do not need daily chart, as situation here stands the same.

On 4H EUR shows upside breakout of our triangle, and turns to flag consolidation right under 1.1650 level. The one thing that we need to control today - is backward drop inside triangle. This will be negative sign. As breakout has happened, EUR has to stay above to keep bullish context valid:
eur_4h_13_09_18.png


On 1H EUR has completed two targets. First is COP of our major AB=CD pattern, and also minor XOP of inner ab-cd. Current pause is absolutely normal action. Nearest upside target suggests breakout and stands around 1.1675 - OP and butterfly 1.27 extension:
eur_1h_13_09_18.png


On the opposite side of this setup is downside flag breakout and return back in 4H triangle.
 
Greetings everybody,

So, EUR on a background of fundamental kind has performed well, our target yesterday was hit. On daily chart there are two important moments for today's session - major Fib resistance at 1.1730 and Daily Overbought @1.1760:
eur_d_14_09_18.png


On 4H chart now we could turn to larger AB-CD pattern and its nearest target that stands at 1.1790 ~1.18.
This is COP extention. But, since today we have OB level at 1.1760, hardly it will be reached. Besides, we do not exclude chance on pullback after solid performance right at major 1.1730 resistance, as speculators could start fix profit before weekend:
eur_4h_14_09_18.png


On 1H chart our OP and 1.27 butterfly target have been reached. At the same time, we have to acknowledge that EUR shows acceleration right to the target and this moment significantly increase chance on reaching next one. Take a look that 1.618 butterfly agrees with daily Fib level, XOP stands around 1.1760 and theoretically also could be hit.
Still as we've said 1.1730-1.1760 is the area where downside pullback has good chances to start. Most probable retracement target is 1.1650 natural support area. We could say it more definite, when we will see how retracement will deveop, if it will at all, of course :)
eur_1h_14_09_18.png
 
Back
Top