FOREX PRO Weekly September 12-16, 2011

[Sive Morten]

Hello Mr. Morten!
I am curios if your context for short position at 13880 was W&R. I shorted too at 61.8 retracement, but later I was not sure if it really was a W&R.
Thank you!

Hi Georgeta,
Looks like I do not exactly catch about which one W&R you're talking - the chart is appreciated

My context as I've descibed in update - daily B&B and strong intraday level.

 

[Damian1987]

Hi Damian!
If you do not mind, can you tell me what software do you use for charting and where do you get the DiNapoli package from?
Good trading!

Hi pragmatic!

I use GFT dealbook 360 , even though it is a trading platform I only use it for analysis. They provide Dinapoli's full suite of indicators for a monthly fee of around 80 USD. Good trading for you too and have a nice weekend.



BTW, Thank you Sive for your weekly analysis, have a nice weekend you too!

 

[Damian1987]

One more thing...

Hello Mr. Morten!
I am curios if your context for short position at 13880 was W&R. I shorted too at 61.8 retracement, but later I was not sure if it really was a W&R.
Thank you!

Hi Georgeta,
Looks like I do not exactly catch about which one W&R you're talking - the chart is appreciated

My context as I've descibed in update - daily B&B and strong intraday level.

I have pretty much the same question that georgeta. If my guess is correct,she is talking about the candle that made W&R with a top around 1,3936 on the attached chart. .618 retracement should be, once again if i'm not wrong, point C in the chart at 1,3896.
The red arrows pointing down are the two shorts I've entered yesterday. the first once I took a small profit since I've realized I hadn't made any analisys at all to enter short and the second one I saw this AB CD possible pattern at a price level I considered too high for the current context. I took 50% profit at 1,3840 and moved stop to BE. then , unfortunately I've closed it at the price level of the last arrow pointing to the left.
Lucklyly I had the opportunity to re enter short today at 1,3820 , almost .382 retracement after touching K area at 1,38.

Edit: I want to add, it is not the context you used to enter at 1,3880 that I'm interested in, since you've shared it on daily update...BUT the particular SELL signal you used to enter short...was it the W&R we are talking about?

 

[Sive Morten]

I have pretty much the same question that georgeta. If my guess is correct,she is talking about the candle that made W&R with a top around 1,3936 on the attached chart. .618 retracement should be, once again if i'm not wrong, point C in the chart at 1,3896.
The red arrows pointing down are the two shorts I've entered yesterday. the first once I took a small profit since I've realized I hadn't made any analisys at all to enter short and the second one I saw this AB CD possible pattern at a price level I considered too high for the current context. I took 50% profit at 1,3840 and moved stop to BE. then , unfortunately I've closed it at the price level of the last arrow pointing to the left.
Lucklyly I had the opportunity to re enter short today at 1,3820 , almost .382 retracement after touching K area at 1,38.

Edit: I want to add, it is not the context you used to enter at 1,3880 that I'm interested in, since you've shared it on daily update...BUT the particular SELL signal you used to enter short...was it the W&R we are talking about?

Damian,
where is the W&R? W&R is forming when market reaches some new extreme at fast mode just to clear out stop beyond it. Here I do not see any W&R. This move up was due news about USD lending to EU banks. Market shows strong downmove...
Context is a strong resistance - pivot+Confluence agreement. There were no presice patterns on hourly time frame, except, may be triangle downward break (its level we discuss in update). Strong level sometimes itself could be a pattern. Then I was driven by the trend...

 

[Damian1987]

Damian,
where is the W&R? W&R is forming when market reaches some new extreme at fast mode just to clear out stop beyond it. Here I do not see any W&R. This move up was due news about USD lending to EU banks. Market shows strong downmove...
Context is a strong resistance - pivot+Confluence agreement. There were no presice patterns on hourly time frame, except, may be triangle downward break (its level we discuss in update). Strong level sometimes itself could be a pattern. Then I was driven by the trend...

Sive,

The blue circle is what I though could be a W&R since all the XOPs of the ABCDs of the hourly channel where there.... that's not a W&R that happened thanks to the USD lending? I think there's something about W&Rs i'm not getting straight then, I guess it will come with practice.

 

[georgeta]

:err:

We look like a couple of school children who said something stupid at school. I feel ashamed...

First, I thought Sive you had a pattern for entering short. You always-always say: "Do not enter just because of some level. The market could easily break it". So I saw a W&R like action.

Second, I thought that market erased the stops above the 38.2 resistance. Also, there was a small reaction and some highs on H1 and the price just exceeded it.

Conclusion: I am glad I asked because I understand better the W&R pattern now. Sive gives excellent explanations and details.

One important thing remains to be clarified: What was Sive's strategy?
Did you sell the 1.618 expansion strait out? In this case the SL had to be placed a least 42 pips above the 38.2 resistance or else it would have been taken.

Thank you again!

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive,

The blue circle is what I though could be a W&R since all the XOPs of the ABCDs of the hourly channel where there.... that's not a W&R that happened thanks to the USD lending? I think there's something about W&Rs i'm not getting straight then, I guess it will come with practice.

:err:

We look like a couple of school children who said something stupid at school. I feel ashamed...

First, I thought Sive you had a pattern for entering short. You always-always say: "Do not enter just because of some level. The market could easily break it". So I saw a W&R like action.

Second, I thought that market erased the stops above the 38.2 resistance. Also, there was a small reaction and some highs on H1 and the price just exceeded it.

Conclusion: I am glad I asked because I understand better the W&R pattern now. Sive gives excellent explanations and details.

One important thing remains to be clarified: What was Sive's strategy?
Did you sell the 1.618 expansion strait out? In this case the SL had to be placed a least 42 pips above the 38.2 resistance or else it would have been taken.

Thank you again!

Damian, Georgetta,
you've understand right - this is not W&R, this is just highs and reaching 1.618 targets. It calls Wash and Rinse, hence we need something to wash and rinse and this "something" should be some level - high or low that holds some time. To the left of your pattern we have strong downward move - so there is no object for W&R...

Georgetta.
You understand right, about "never ever enter without clear signal". My signal was B&B "Sell" on daily time frame. IT has very high probability of success. My strategy was as I described in Daily Update:
1. I do not know where it will start - from 0.382 or 0.5, but I know that 0.5 is also daily overbought, hence, there is a huge probability that market will go down at least from 0.5. resistance.
2. I've entered short with small lot from our 1.3880 level two days ago, since market should respect it - pivot and Confluence resistance and Agreement. But my stop was above 0.5 daily resistance. (risk/reward ratio around 1). Also I have a sleeping order at 0.5 resistance on greater volume.
3. When I've seen that market break down triangle (here is the pattern that you could use btw) and cancelled Butterfly, returned back in channel - that was a confirmation. I've moved my stop to b/e and later increase position on ratracements.

See, a lot of patterns and confirmations. Even if you've entered as we descibed in video or daily update - you should have nice profitable position.
I do not know your possibilities in terms of money management and personality, so I can't force you to act in my way. Mostly I'll try to give you safest way to act.

 

[Damian1987]

Wow!!! Now I get it much much better! thank you Sive, you are great man!