EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 22, September 2011
Good morning,
It is much better to see some clear signs from market rather than try to predict some macro event.
So, currently we have nice confirmation that market probably will continue downmove. There are no supports just below it - oversold stands at 1.33. So, probably our assumption about Butterfly "buy" could become true, at least in near days market probably continue move down.
The first possible target of butterfly is 1.3385 level, second is 1.3237. But 1.618 target stands beyond daily oversold, so we will not speak about it today.
Daily trend is bearish.
4-hour trend is also bearish. We see AB-CD pattern with 1.0 target at 1.3443. Now market has hit 0.618 target and pivot support, so some retracement is possible.
Hourly chart shows that trend is also bearish. Nearest resistance is 1.3584. That's the level to watch for enter short. Stop is better to place above K-area 1.3624, I suppose around 1.3650.
The reason is: all trends are bearish, market has no support and not at oversold, macro event in rearview mirror already. So, in fact, if bears are strong, market should not show deep retracements.
If market will reach 1.3584 and then continue move down - move your stop to b/e.