I think weekly chart shows abc pattern with c bottoming as ending diagonal so take care.
Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, September 23 - 27, 2019
- Thread starter Sive Morten
- Start date
Nothing bullish in my book. Bears in full control. This Quarter most likely will close lower than previous (1.1370), August Month closed lower(1.0999) than the previous month. Last week closed 1.1002 which was lower than the previous week close 1.1074. The only that prevents this to drop is the 1.0964 which is the lowest daily close in this sequence.
Being below 1.0964 and close above 1.0964 will be the first clue for the bulls, same if the Sept close will be above 1.0999.
However, I would still like to see +1.114x before 1.084x and it can be in range mode for weeks before it happens.
(close price is at 17:30 CET)
Neither is in mine, I am bullish just to make the right HH to go toward parity.
That is the problem to play in current area, bearish into support. It can easily bounce +200pips from here.
London goes home with a lower close than Friday. 1.0996 for the reference. There is a great chance todays low will be tested within 24hr
Last edited:
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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Morning guys,
Let's keep up with the EUR. In general, market supports our analysis that we've made in weekend - short-term sentiment stands bearish. Second, awful numbers on business activity in EU supports our long-term view on disproportion of EU and US economy condition, which will press on EUR/USD slowly but stubbornly.
As a result, we have mixed picture. From one side, EUR has dropped below 1.10 and broken last 5/8 Fib level. From another one - it plays back a bit and on daily chart we've got grabber and high wave pattern.
Still, if we try to put them in our context - they do not match to it, at least grabber is definitely not. Hence, I will not play it. For truth sake I do not consider long position at all, right now.
On 4H chart we agree to consider deeper standing targets and one of them has been hit yesterday - butterfly 1.27 extension. In general market stands on the way of AB=CD pattern, but OP has not been reached yet. The only thing that probably is possible to do on a long side of the market - is trying to catch supports and take scalp short-term trades. Such as around butterfly target - and trying to catch 30% minor Fib resistance as a target.
On 1H chart I see only signs of bearish dynamic pressure as well. As 4H OP is not reached yet, chances on minor drop today still stand on the table:
That's being said, somehow I tend to bearish view on EUR. Unfortunately market can't show yet the full power of the dark side as it stuck in the swamp of 1.09-1.11 consolidation. When it will be on free space - action could become faster as major monthly/weekly 5/8 1.1185 Fib level has been broken already
Let's keep up with the EUR. In general, market supports our analysis that we've made in weekend - short-term sentiment stands bearish. Second, awful numbers on business activity in EU supports our long-term view on disproportion of EU and US economy condition, which will press on EUR/USD slowly but stubbornly.
As a result, we have mixed picture. From one side, EUR has dropped below 1.10 and broken last 5/8 Fib level. From another one - it plays back a bit and on daily chart we've got grabber and high wave pattern.
Still, if we try to put them in our context - they do not match to it, at least grabber is definitely not. Hence, I will not play it. For truth sake I do not consider long position at all, right now.
On 4H chart we agree to consider deeper standing targets and one of them has been hit yesterday - butterfly 1.27 extension. In general market stands on the way of AB=CD pattern, but OP has not been reached yet. The only thing that probably is possible to do on a long side of the market - is trying to catch supports and take scalp short-term trades. Such as around butterfly target - and trying to catch 30% minor Fib resistance as a target.
On 1H chart I see only signs of bearish dynamic pressure as well. As 4H OP is not reached yet, chances on minor drop today still stand on the table:
That's being said, somehow I tend to bearish view on EUR. Unfortunately market can't show yet the full power of the dark side as it stuck in the swamp of 1.09-1.11 consolidation. When it will be on free space - action could become faster as major monthly/weekly 5/8 1.1185 Fib level has been broken already
Sveckar, are you so kind and give me link to this reports, I cant find such formats of data. TY
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,630
Morning guys,
EUR gives not too much information for analysis as it forms inside sessions on this week. Yesterday we've got another grabber, but, as I've said yesterday, I have really big doubts on it due short-term fundamental factors and absolutely have no intention to buy EUR right now. The context that we have are too week to make bullish bet.
In general situation stands the same - we need breakout of HW pattern first, but mostly 1.09-1.11 range to get the direction and interesting trading setups. While EUR is stuck inside - the maximum that we could get is short-term scalp patterns on intraday charts:
On 4H chart we haven't got the minor butterfly down to OP target, and got "222" Sell instead. Thus, OP target still stands on the table and butterfly still could be formed but a bit different shape.
Currently it is difficult to find something really attractive for trading here. On 4H chart it is possible to recognize a bit skewed reverse H&S pattern. If it will work - we could get higher upward bounce. Conversely, coming back to lows supports our bearish view on the market.
Of course it is not forbidden to identify bullish patterns here and try to take scalp long trades. But personally I'm not fascinating with any longs by far due the factors that we've discussed in weekly report. Somehow I have some feeling/expectation that downside breakout should happen. I don't like current price action.
EUR gives not too much information for analysis as it forms inside sessions on this week. Yesterday we've got another grabber, but, as I've said yesterday, I have really big doubts on it due short-term fundamental factors and absolutely have no intention to buy EUR right now. The context that we have are too week to make bullish bet.
In general situation stands the same - we need breakout of HW pattern first, but mostly 1.09-1.11 range to get the direction and interesting trading setups. While EUR is stuck inside - the maximum that we could get is short-term scalp patterns on intraday charts:
On 4H chart we haven't got the minor butterfly down to OP target, and got "222" Sell instead. Thus, OP target still stands on the table and butterfly still could be formed but a bit different shape.
Currently it is difficult to find something really attractive for trading here. On 4H chart it is possible to recognize a bit skewed reverse H&S pattern. If it will work - we could get higher upward bounce. Conversely, coming back to lows supports our bearish view on the market.
Of course it is not forbidden to identify bullish patterns here and try to take scalp long trades. But personally I'm not fascinating with any longs by far due the factors that we've discussed in weekly report. Somehow I have some feeling/expectation that downside breakout should happen. I don't like current price action.
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,630
Morning guys,
So it seems that we should recall our deeper stand targets. This example of EUR collapse clearly shows that sometimes you do not know the reason, but irrational price action warns you. As we saw that EUR move was absolutely "incorrect" to normal bullish price action, we warned that long position is too risky. But, surely we just can't know that this will be imeachment hysteria, which, in turn, also contrived excuse for those who wants to shake a boat a bit.
Anyway, EUR probably should try to challenge recent lows and hit near standing targets - 1.0875-1.0890 area. We do not have any strong Fib support levels any more and this area is just few extension targets - major OP, MPS1, some minor extensions also stand there and, yes, it also will be daily oversold:
On 4H chart our OP has been hit and now we're watching for XOP and butterfly target. Both stand in the same 1.0875 area.
As market stands near lows and sweet stops, it is not at oversold and no valuable supports around - upside retracement here should be small. Thus, we could consider just nearest 1.0970 and 1.0990 areas as possible pullback before breakout. But it is also possible that EUR will drop immediately...
So it seems that we should recall our deeper stand targets. This example of EUR collapse clearly shows that sometimes you do not know the reason, but irrational price action warns you. As we saw that EUR move was absolutely "incorrect" to normal bullish price action, we warned that long position is too risky. But, surely we just can't know that this will be imeachment hysteria, which, in turn, also contrived excuse for those who wants to shake a boat a bit.
Anyway, EUR probably should try to challenge recent lows and hit near standing targets - 1.0875-1.0890 area. We do not have any strong Fib support levels any more and this area is just few extension targets - major OP, MPS1, some minor extensions also stand there and, yes, it also will be daily oversold:
On 4H chart our OP has been hit and now we're watching for XOP and butterfly target. Both stand in the same 1.0875 area.
As market stands near lows and sweet stops, it is not at oversold and no valuable supports around - upside retracement here should be small. Thus, we could consider just nearest 1.0970 and 1.0990 areas as possible pullback before breakout. But it is also possible that EUR will drop immediately...
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