Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, September 23 - 27, 2019

[Stag]

...The chart suggests how this sequence and its final wave may be subdividing down, pointed toward lower levels with a potential final target in the 1.0900 - 1.0850 region.

While there is no evidence a bottom has been established the divergence between price and momentum signals the decline may be in its final stage. In this case price has no business being above 1.1109 until this wave completes. A decline below yesterday's 1.0990 low will imply that wave 5 remains in action...

Greetings guys, my forecast from last week proved to be correct and now we have a new low at 1.0922.

It is possible the ending diagonal just ended, but in lack of evidence a larger ending diagonal is still possible. In this case after a pullback prices can go as deep as 1.07 depending on the pattern we use for the calculation, but preferably not lower then 1.085.

When complete, prices need to take a swift reversal. Currently a rise above 1.1067 would be the initial sign of a final low is in place, but prices need to break above our structural key level at 1.1109 to confirm.

Good luck.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

As you can see by EW analysis from Stag, the same area of 1.0840-1.0880 is treated as potential destination of downside action, where sharp reversal could happen. As we've discussed yesterday two butterflies - first stands here on daily, while second one on 4H chart - their combination gives us potential 3-Drive "Buy" pattern. If it really will work - its target stands above 2nd and 3rd Drives - 1.1108 area.

Still, guys, market has so-so support around 1.0850, because this is not quite support but just target cluster. We do not have real supports there. It means that something should have externally to trigger upside reversal on EUR. This sould be some political event, maybe statistics or something.

Another reason why I think so is our gold setup. Those who is familiar with it knows that we keep an eye on rally to new top. Despite recent drop, gold stands tight at major support area, keeping this setup valid.
It means that it is relatively safe to keep shorts while EUR goes to our 1.0850-1.0860 area, but then some strong action could happen.

On 4H chart you can see the 2nd butterfly in 3-Drive chain. Actually it stands the same as yesterday. And, yes, market has shown just minor pullback yesterday, as we've suggested and turned down again:

That's being said it is not too much to do today. Those who have shorts - keep them until the target, just move stops to breakeven. It is too early to go long by far. Taking new short-term shorts is possible but only if we will get bearish continuation pattern, some retracement on 1h or lower time frame charts