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Forex Signal (Fri April 15 8:30am NY Time EST) - US Core CPI m/m

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Apr 14, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

    Jul 5, 2010
    Likes Received:
    We’ll be trading US Core CPI m/m release today. CPI or Consumer Price Index, also known as the “true cost of living”, is what drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest rate, therefore this release will be widely watched. Here’s the forecast for the CPI:

    8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.2%

    The Trade Plan

    Our minimum tradable deviation for this release is 0.2%; if the release number (core) increases to a minimum 0.4% then we will BUY USD/JPY. If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we’ll BUY EURUSD. Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to exaggerate its move, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips within the next 90 minutes or so.

    We’ll be trading this release using our after news retracement trade method.

    Henry's News Trading Method

    The Market
    CPI is expected to remain steady but at a skeptical rate. The Federal reserve remains confident that prices in oil, grain, and other commodities aren’t red flags for worry. The outlook is that increased prices for these goods are more likely to be temporary rather than permanent. On the contrary, opposing thoughts suggest that domestic inflation will follow the continued growth of the global economy. Other factors such as Federal spending and monetization of debt will probably lead to some degree of inflation but not to a degree that should raise worry.

    Additional Thoughts
    The best time to trade this release would probably be during the NY Equity market open at 9:30am as this release is not a strong market mover… unless we get a strong Retail Sales, it’s probably best to stay out then.

    Pre-News Consideration
    There is no pre-news bias for this release.

    “CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households wikipedia).” It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.

    Historical Chart and Data for US Core CPI m/m


    #1 Henry Liu, Apr 14, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. VTEC

    VTEC Recruit

    Jan 24, 2011
    Likes Received:

    first of all - Henry thanks for Your hard work, much appreciate : )

    I wonder, where do You guys get news in the fastest way? Is it some paid service, or some www?

    Best regards

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