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Forex Signal (Fri, August 27 2010, 4:30am NY Time EDT) - UK Revised GDP q/q

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Aug 26, 2010.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Revised GDP q/q, or better known as the 2nd quarterly GDP release, is going to be the focus today. Here is the forecast:

    4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast 1.1% Previous 1.1%
    ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.4% SELL 0.8%


    The Trade Plan
    Since this is the second release of the 2nd quarter GDP, we’re not likely to get a huge surprise as most 2nd releases are pretty much inline. However, judging from the expected release of 1.1% and previous release of 1.1% (Prelim GDP on July 26th), we may not get a surprise release after all.

    However, we'll still be looking to trade the release using our after news retracement method. Our surprise factor is 0.3% as we’ll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD at 0.8% or worse, and BUY GBP/USD at 1.4% or better. Historically, there is a 80% of chance if our S. Factor is hit, the market will move up to 50~70 pips within the hour as GDP is a very high impact report.

    For more information on my news trading methods:
    Henry's news trading methods

    The Market
    After recent scare by BOE member Weale during an interview for "significant risk of double-dip recession" market has been pretty indecisive when it comes to Sterling. Today's release may help to push GBP to a new level, if we get a strong deviation from the forecast. As stated before, the 2nd Quarter GDP release out of UK may be the highest release for some time, and a positive revision upwards could push GBP above the 1.5700 level...

    Additional Thoughts
    With the general market being driven by risk aversion, it is best to follow the trend and SELL GBP in the event that we get a strong release... it may not be the best time to SELL during European session, but GBP should retreat from its highs and provide a great entry at the top during NY session.

    Pre-news Consideration
    There is no pre-news consideration for this release today.

    Definition
    Revised GDP q/q from UK, is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measurement of the economy, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate as better economy usually brings higher inflationary pressure…

    Historical Chart & Data for UK Revised GDP


    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Aug 26, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Bill Dawson

    Bill Dawson Recruit

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    Thank you Henry, looking forward as always for great advice....Bill.:)
     
  3. DARLINE

    DARLINE Recruit

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    sell

    It going to be a sell type.
     
  4. M.Nazri

    M.Nazri Private, 1st Class

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    BEST

    Thank you sir for the analysis......i will keep your word and NICE WEEKEND;)
     
  5. M.Nazri

    M.Nazri Private, 1st Class

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    no cent oppinion


    How do you now it's a SELL??
    in my no cent oppinion,LOOK FOR THE CANDDLE at M15,M30,H1 and H4
    maybe,in my REAL account chart show it but yours,who's know
    PEACE
     
  6. kkunlexx

    kkunlexx Private

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    Thanks Henry, though some people say we are your worshiper. I don't blame them. I know "It is better to worship a man who does well than to be a friend to a man who offers nothing". I look forward to a good and profitable trade today. thanks once again.
     

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