Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
We’ll be getting the Canadian Employment Change release number tomorrow, here is the forecast:
7:00am (NY TIme) CA Employment Change Forecast 20K Previous 3K
Unemployment Rate 7.9%
ACTION: USDCAD BUY -10K SELL 50K
The Trade Plan
Canadian Employment Change report will be release at 7:00am sharp today, and it's the first of two high impact tradable news releases today. What I am looking for is a minimum deviation of around 30K, or the difference between the Forecast number (20K) versus the actual release number; if we get a positive 50K of release, we should see demand for the CAD rise, therefore we should SELL USD/CAD; however, if we get a negative number, such as -10K or worse, we should see some weakness in the CAD, and that will be my cue to BUY USD/CAD pair.
I’ll also pay close attention to the unemployment rate, which stands at 7.9%, from last month’s release. As long as this number does not conflict with the Employment Changes, we should follow the direction of the news release. If we get a conflict, such as better Employment Changes but higher Unemployment Rate, then we’ll need to look at the context of the market before take the trade.
I'll be looking to trade this release using my after-news Retracement Method, for more information:
Henry's News Trading Method.
The Market
USDCAD has been trading in a tight range despite of recent USD strength followed by yesterday's strong reversal (as result of ECB Trichet's Press Conference). CAD is likely to move to parity against USD if we get a strong release, but further strength in the CAD may be limited to hovering around parity.
Looking at recent Canadian economic data, it is equally likely to get better or worse releases for this Employment release... However, I'd be looking out for the 1.0000 level on USDCAD as this could be a decent psychological support.
Additional Thoughts
USD/CAD is a slow moving currency pair, it will move on a strong deviation, but retracement is usually non-existent or very small... Therefore, if we get a strong release, especially when it is going with the pre-market trend, a sooner than later entry should add more pips to your account. Expect to see a spike down --> stall ---> another spike down...
Pre-news Considerations
There are no pre-news considerations for this release.
DEFINITION
“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.”
Historical Chart & Data for CA Employment Change
Thanks,
7:00am (NY TIme) CA Employment Change Forecast 20K Previous 3K
Unemployment Rate 7.9%
ACTION: USDCAD BUY -10K SELL 50K
The Trade Plan
Canadian Employment Change report will be release at 7:00am sharp today, and it's the first of two high impact tradable news releases today. What I am looking for is a minimum deviation of around 30K, or the difference between the Forecast number (20K) versus the actual release number; if we get a positive 50K of release, we should see demand for the CAD rise, therefore we should SELL USD/CAD; however, if we get a negative number, such as -10K or worse, we should see some weakness in the CAD, and that will be my cue to BUY USD/CAD pair.
I’ll also pay close attention to the unemployment rate, which stands at 7.9%, from last month’s release. As long as this number does not conflict with the Employment Changes, we should follow the direction of the news release. If we get a conflict, such as better Employment Changes but higher Unemployment Rate, then we’ll need to look at the context of the market before take the trade.
I'll be looking to trade this release using my after-news Retracement Method, for more information:
Henry's News Trading Method.
The Market
USDCAD has been trading in a tight range despite of recent USD strength followed by yesterday's strong reversal (as result of ECB Trichet's Press Conference). CAD is likely to move to parity against USD if we get a strong release, but further strength in the CAD may be limited to hovering around parity.
Looking at recent Canadian economic data, it is equally likely to get better or worse releases for this Employment release... However, I'd be looking out for the 1.0000 level on USDCAD as this could be a decent psychological support.
Additional Thoughts
USD/CAD is a slow moving currency pair, it will move on a strong deviation, but retracement is usually non-existent or very small... Therefore, if we get a strong release, especially when it is going with the pre-market trend, a sooner than later entry should add more pips to your account. Expect to see a spike down --> stall ---> another spike down...
Pre-news Considerations
There are no pre-news considerations for this release.
DEFINITION
“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.”
Historical Chart & Data for CA Employment Change
Thanks,
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