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Forex Signal (Fri February 18 2011, 4:30am NY Time EST) - UK Retail Sales

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Feb 17, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Today’s Retail Sales number from UK will be widely watched as this is a high impact yet tradable report. Here is the forecast for this release:

    4:30am (NY Time) Forecast 0.6% Previous -0.8%
    ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.0% SELL 0.0%


    The Trade Plan
    Retail Sales by definition is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.

    Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is 0.6% to BUY or SELL. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 72%. We’ll be looking to BUY GBP/USD if we get a 1.0% or better release, and SELL GBP/USD if we get a 0.0% or worse.

    We'll be looking for an after-news retracement trade for this release. For more information on my trading methods:
    Henry's News Trading Methods.

    The Market
    With the current inflationary pressure in UK on the rise, a better than expected Retail Sales could push Sterling higher above the current resistance levels, therefore I'd definitely be looking out for that.

    With BOE under tremendous pressure to contain current inflationary pressure, any positive news will add more pressure for BOE to act soon, therefore a sharp rise in the Retail Sector may give BOE the excuse it needed to move forward with a rate hike, at least that's what some speculators may think.

    Additional Thoughts
    GBP is possibly heading towards the 1.7000 level in the next few months, therefore it is already a "BUY ONLY" currency in my book. Any negative news will just mean that I'd buy in at a better price.

    Pre-news Consideration
    There could be a pre-news BUY on GBPUSD as we will be looking at any significant dips during the Asian session for entry.

    For historical chart & data for UK Retail Sales


    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Feb 17, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. swingfiddle

    swingfiddle Private

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    this is testing my nerves....
     
  3. Ahmed H

    Ahmed H Private

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    wow..

    did anyone else got raped today?
     
  4. Philip Benveniste

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    Luckily I have waited enough, until now, where I closed my buy position and earned 200 euros. But in the 10 first minutes I was loosing 1300 euros. Strange movement for so large deviation...
     
  5. swingfiddle

    swingfiddle Private

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    you have an iron stomach....hehehe
    same here...waited enough and made 22 pips,but i think we were lucky that smaghi talked about a rate hike in the euro so it pushed the dollar down...
     
  6. Philip Benveniste

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    That's correct my friend...
    Note also the US market opening at 0800 hrs, which pushed further the GBP in my opinion
     

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