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Forex Signal (Fri July 15 2011, 8:30am NY Time EST) - US Core CPI m/m

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Jul 14, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    We’ll be trading US Core CPI m/m release tomorrow. CPI or Consumer Price Index, also known as the “true cost of living”, is what drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest rate, therefore this release will be widely watched. Here’s the forecast for the CPI:

    8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.3%
    ACTION: 0.4% BUY USDJPY / 0.0% BUY EURUSD

    The Trade Plan

    Our minimum tradable deviation for this release is 0.2%; if the release number (core) increases to a minimum 0.4% then we will BUY USD/JPY. If the CPI number decreases to 0.0% or less, we’ll BUY EUR/USD. Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to exaggerate its move, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips within the next 90 minutes or so.

    We’ll be trading this release using our after news retracement trade method.

    For more information on my trading methods:
    Henry Liu's Trading Method


    The Market
    With Thursday's PPI surprising the market at -0.4% (a -0.2% release was estimated) and Import Prices at -0.5% for the same month, CPI release will probably show that inflationary pressure for US in the month of June decreased due to falling commodity prices...

    With Fed Bernanke testifying that recent inflationary pressure was transitory due to commodity prices, it is likely that with the falling in gasoline prices in June, this CPI release will come inline or less than market expectation in my opinion.

    Additional Thoughts
    With FOMC focusing on Job/Economy more than Inflation, unless we get a huge surprise, market may very well ignore this release and fall back to the market trend prior to the release.

    Pre-News Consideration
    I'm going to look at a very careful entry of LONG EURUSD if the market drops down to recent support/congestion levels because of the possible QE3 rumor and the fact that this CPI release may come out slightly worse than expectation.

    DEFINITION:
    “CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households wikipedia).” It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.

    Historical Chart and Data for US Core CPI m/m




    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Jul 14, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. azgar

    azgar Recruit

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    thanks for your email
    you are the doing great job.:)
     
  3. fazli

    fazli Recruit

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    thanks henry,.....i always look forward for your email. :)
     
  4. Arindam Das

    Arindam Das Recruit

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    You are really great. I'm just following you.

    You are really great. I'm just following you.

    Andy
     
  5. Callen

    Callen Recruit

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    Hey guys, what broker are you using?

    I always experience lag during news time.
     
  6. Anthonia Taiwo

    Anthonia Taiwo Private

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    Mr. Henry you are a genius. This is the first time in my life signal comes almost 100% prediction if I should call it that.

    I will make forexpeacearmy my homepage.
     
  7. osamah_dvd

    osamah_dvd Recruit

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    شكرررررررررر
     

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