Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
We’ll be receiving GDP release from Canada today along with US Adv. GDP q/q, I'd suggest to concentrate on the U.S. release first, if there is no trading opportunity there, then come back and look at the Canadian release. Here's the forecast:
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.2% SELL 0.4%
The Trade Plan
I’ll be looking to BUY USD/CAD if we get a -0.2% or lower release, and SELL USD/CAD if we get a 0.4% or higher… With recent strength in CAD due to the general weakness in the USD and rise in demands for commodities, a stronger GDP should definitely add to the bullishness of the CAD.
I'll be looking for a Retracement Trade Method for this release, however, with US GDP also scheduled at 8:30am today, we'll take this trade only when there is no conflict (better CAD release and better USD release = conflict).
For more information on my trading method:
Henry's Retracement Trade Method.
The Market
As GDP is basically the measurement of the “economy” as a whole and it certainly has a tremendous impact on the official interest rate, because better GDP equals to higher inflation, and higher inflation means higher interest rate.
However, today's CAD GDP is likely to be overshadowed by the US release. I expect to see CAD remain in a tight range today.
Additional Thoughts
USD/CAD is my official pair for this trade, and this pair does not give up retracement easily. In the event that we get a strong release, expect USD/CAD to spike, stall, and then spike again. We may see some limited retracement, if any. The strategy to trade this release is usually just get in as soon as possible and let it ride.
Pre-news Consideration
Retail Sales in Canada came out worse than expected, but employment is at all time high. Crude Oil has gained somewhat, so based on these releases, I expect to see some strength in the CAD; a SELL USD/CAD trade could be justified if USD/CAD tests recent highs (1.0390), using a 40~80 pips of profit target.
Definition
GDP is defined (by wikipedia) as: “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”
Historical data and charts for CA GDP m/m.
Thanks,
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.2% SELL 0.4%
The Trade Plan
I’ll be looking to BUY USD/CAD if we get a -0.2% or lower release, and SELL USD/CAD if we get a 0.4% or higher… With recent strength in CAD due to the general weakness in the USD and rise in demands for commodities, a stronger GDP should definitely add to the bullishness of the CAD.
I'll be looking for a Retracement Trade Method for this release, however, with US GDP also scheduled at 8:30am today, we'll take this trade only when there is no conflict (better CAD release and better USD release = conflict).
For more information on my trading method:
Henry's Retracement Trade Method.
The Market
As GDP is basically the measurement of the “economy” as a whole and it certainly has a tremendous impact on the official interest rate, because better GDP equals to higher inflation, and higher inflation means higher interest rate.
However, today's CAD GDP is likely to be overshadowed by the US release. I expect to see CAD remain in a tight range today.
Additional Thoughts
USD/CAD is my official pair for this trade, and this pair does not give up retracement easily. In the event that we get a strong release, expect USD/CAD to spike, stall, and then spike again. We may see some limited retracement, if any. The strategy to trade this release is usually just get in as soon as possible and let it ride.
Pre-news Consideration
Retail Sales in Canada came out worse than expected, but employment is at all time high. Crude Oil has gained somewhat, so based on these releases, I expect to see some strength in the CAD; a SELL USD/CAD trade could be justified if USD/CAD tests recent highs (1.0390), using a 40~80 pips of profit target.
Definition
GDP is defined (by wikipedia) as: “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”
Historical data and charts for CA GDP m/m.
Thanks,
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