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Forex Signal (Fri March 11 7:00am NY Time EST) - CA Employment Change

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Mar 10, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

    Jul 5, 2010
    Likes Received:
    We’ll be getting the Canadian Employment Change release number tomorrow, here is the forecast:

    7:00am (NY Time) CA Employment Change Forecast 26K Previous 69.2K
    Unemployment Rate 7.7%

    The Trade Plan

    Canadian Employment Change report will be release at 7:00am sharp today, and it's the first of two high impact tradable news releases today. What I am looking for is a minimum deviation of around 30K, or the difference between the Forecast number (26K) versus the actual release number; if we get a positive 55K of release, we should see demand for the CAD rise, therefore we should SELL USD/CAD; however, if we get a negative number, such as -5K or worse, we should see some weakness in the CAD, and that will be my cue to BUY USD/CAD pair.

    I’ll also pay close attention to the unemployment rate, which stands at 7.7%. As long as this number does not conflict with the Employment Changes, we should follow the direction of the news release. If we get a conflict, such as better Employment Changes but higher Unemployment Rate, then we’ll need to look at the context of the market before take the trade.

    I'll be looking to trade this release using my after-news Retracement Method, for more information:
    Henry's News Trading Method.

    The Market
    USDCAD has been gaining on the back of the highest crude oil prices since 2008 and is also supported by possible disruption in Libya’s oil production and ongoing civil war. Furthermore, there is also the planned protest in Saudi Arabia with over 32,000 protesters expected to participate in this "peaceful" demostration... and since Saudi Arabia is responsible for compensating the possible shortage in Libya’s oil supplies, any civil unrest may spark another rally in commodity, thus making CAD stronger.

    At this point in the market, market sentiment will play a big role in the direction of USDCAD as any disruption in the oil supplies would appreciate the Loonie as it is anchored in Crude Oil... Moreover, considering the much improved employment in recent months, we could give see market support in the Canadian dollar for the short term.

    Additional Thoughts
    USD/CAD is a slow moving currency pair, it will move on a strong deviation, but retracement is usually non-existent or very small... Therefore, if we get a strong release, especially when it is going with the pre-market trend, a sooner than later entry should add more pips to your account. Expect to see a spike down --> stall ---> another spike down...

    Pre-news Considerations
    There are no pre-news considerations for this release...

    “Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.”

    Historical Chart & Data for CA Employment Change


    #1 Henry Liu, Mar 10, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. godlymystery

    godlymystery Recruit

    Apr 18, 2008
    Likes Received:
    Thanks Liu. Your analysis always boost my confidence when trading.
  3. neon1ck

    neon1ck Recruit

    Feb 8, 2011
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    looks like not much to trade on this time.

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