Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
We’ll be trading US Core CPI m/m release tomorrow. CPI or Consumer Price Index, also known as the “true cost of living”, is what drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest rate, therefore this release will be widely watched. Here’s the forecast for the CPI:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: 0.4% BUY USDJPY / -0.1% BUY EURUSD
The Trade Plan
Our minimum tradable deviation for this release is 0.2%; if the release number (core) increases to a minimum 0.4% then we will BUY USD/JPY. If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we’ll BUY EUR/USD. Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to exaggerate its move, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips within the next 90 minutes or so.
We’ll be trading this release using our after news retracement trade method.
For more information on my trading methods:
Henry Liu's Trading Method
The Market
The overall index of consumer prices pulls back to 0.4% in April from 0.5% in March. The Department of Labor will release the Core CPI on Friday as figures are projected to show that wholesale prices have risen as well as the cost of imported goods into the U.S. for the month of April. The Core CPI is forecasted to register a slight increase by 0.2% m/m in April from the 0.1% increase in March.
Additional Thoughts
The best time to trade this release would probably be during the NY Equity market open at 9:30am as this release is not a strong market mover… unless we get a strong Retail Sales, it’s probably best to stay out then.
Pre-News Consideration
There is no pre-news bias for this release.
DEFINITION:
“CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households wikipedia).” It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.
Historical Chart and Data for US Core CPI m/m
Thanks,
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: 0.4% BUY USDJPY / -0.1% BUY EURUSD
The Trade Plan
Our minimum tradable deviation for this release is 0.2%; if the release number (core) increases to a minimum 0.4% then we will BUY USD/JPY. If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we’ll BUY EUR/USD. Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to exaggerate its move, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips within the next 90 minutes or so.
We’ll be trading this release using our after news retracement trade method.
For more information on my trading methods:
Henry Liu's Trading Method
The Market
The overall index of consumer prices pulls back to 0.4% in April from 0.5% in March. The Department of Labor will release the Core CPI on Friday as figures are projected to show that wholesale prices have risen as well as the cost of imported goods into the U.S. for the month of April. The Core CPI is forecasted to register a slight increase by 0.2% m/m in April from the 0.1% increase in March.
Additional Thoughts
The best time to trade this release would probably be during the NY Equity market open at 9:30am as this release is not a strong market mover… unless we get a strong Retail Sales, it’s probably best to stay out then.
Pre-News Consideration
There is no pre-news bias for this release.
DEFINITION:
“CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households wikipedia).” It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.
Historical Chart and Data for US Core CPI m/m
Thanks,
Last edited by a moderator:
