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Forex Signal (Friday April 27, 2012 NY TIME 8:30am EDT) – US Advance GDP q/q

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Apr 26, 2012.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hello everyone,

    Please see my trade plan below.

    I hope you find this information I provide you is very useful, I would like to thank everyone for their kind support over the past year and reading my material. I hope it has made a difference to you as a trader.

    US Prelim GDP q/q
    Forecast 2.5%
    Previous 3.0%
    Pair to trade: EUR/USD

    Numbers we need:
    BUY EUR/USD 2.4%
    SELL EUR/USD 3.3%

    Economical Impact: High
    Typical Result: Good for currency - While this is the ‘usual’ effect, under current market conditions the reverse tends to be true against some currencies. As bad data has been triggering the purchase of US bonds, I will trade EUR/USD and not consider USD/JPY on this trade.

    Occurrence: Released quarterly, about 60 days after the quarter ends
    Spike Probability: Good, we can see 45 pips on initial spike

    About our Triggers:
    US advance GDP q/q is forecasted to arrive at 2.5%.
    We are looking for a deviation of - 0.2% to Buy EUR/USD and a deviation of + 0.4% to SELL EUR/USD.
    Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 45 pips on the initial spike.

    What is it? And why does the market care?
    The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator for the economy's health. While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Advance release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart - Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD,
    A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

    Method I use to trade this:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

    Pre News
    I will look for a short sell in EUR/USD 30min before this release and be out 5 min before the actual release.

    After Spike
    I will look for a 25% retracement in the original spike before entering. I will be looking at a 5 minute chart. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at the original spike price.

    My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyse this.

    I do recommend spike trading as an option when there is great uncertainty in the markets; also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please use no more than 12 pip limit order.

    Historical Chart and Data for US Prelim GDP q/q

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Apr 26, 2012
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2012
  2. tangmase

    tangmase Corporal

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    hello sive, thanks a lot to provide is with such important informations. thats very helpfull. i appreciate a lot. kind regards :)
     
  3. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hi I'm Stavro not Sive.
     
  4. fxamante

    fxamante Recruit

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    Hi Stavro,

    Could you please confirm if the trigger for long EURUSD should be 2.3% and the trigger for short EURUSD should be 2.9%? Thanks!
     
  5. ScottFPA

    ScottFPA Recruit

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    Moderation Team Note: Uncivilized comments towards another FPA member deleted. Do not repeat this sort of behavior.
     
  6. zarni

    zarni Recruit

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    Lucky you didn't get your trigger. you would have got your ass handed to you trading the euro. you don't learn do you?
     
  7. Vernard

    Vernard Recruit

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    I'm trying my best to follow your strategy but wish you would be a little more firm on likely direction
     
  8. 4xpipsense

    4xpipsense Private

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    Stavro,
    Thanks for the info. You really made my day great. It was my first time trading live.

    I was eagerly waiting for that news and boom, it came to 2.2%.

    I went long EUR/USD and long AUD/USD.

    Guess what, I ended up making 80 pips total.

    I would have made more than that but my emotion was telling me to stop. And price moved higher than my stop.

    I think it's my first try and I have learnt a lesson.

    Once again, thanks. I am grateful.
     

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