Forex Signal (Friday April 6, 2012 - 8:30am EDT) - US NFP Employment Change

[Stavro D'Amore]

Hello

Today we US Nonfarm Payroll employment due to arrive; please see my trade plan and analysis below. Unemployment uis forecasted at 8.3% previous was 8.3%

US NFP Employment
Forecast 205K
Previous 227K
Pair to trade: EUR/USD
Triggers we need:
BUY 265K (Deviation-60)
SELL 145K (Deviation -60)

Economical Impact: High
Typical Result: Forecast is good for the currency
Occurrence: Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends

About our Triggers:
If the US NFP Employment number comes out at +265 or more, the EUR/USD should go down by about 40 pips. We are using a deviation of +60 for the short.
If it comes out at 145K or less EUR/USD should go up by about 40 pips. We are using -60 to trigger for long.

I would usually consider trading USD/JPY but strongly believe that current conditions id not suitable for this pair.

What is it? Why do we care?
It is the single most important piece of data contained in the employment report, which considered offering the best overview of the economy.
The monthly changes and the revisions in payrolls can be quite volatile.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Method to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

Pre News
Prior to the news release (20 minutes) I will be looking for a short term LONG position in EUR/USD and I will get out of this trade 2 minute before the actual release earlier. I will look for momentum long indicators and Fibonacci retracement levels.

Spike
Yes. I would recommend spike trading as an option if you have the right broker and setup.

After Spike
If your are not spike trading or if you did do a spike trade and your already out, I will look for a 25% retrace in the original spike before entering a trade. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a level, looking at a 15 min chart.

Historical Chart and Data for US NFP Employment

To our sucess

Stavro D’Amore

 

[Wayne C]

Im abit confused by your analysis , (1) TRIGGER WE NEED : BUY 265K (Deviation-60) & SELL 145K (Deviation -60)
(2) About our Triggers:
If the US NFP Employment number comes out at +265 or more, the EUR/USD should go down by about 40 pips. We are using a deviation of +60 for the short.
.If it comes out at 145K or less EUR/USD should go up by about 40 pips. We are using -60 to trigger for long

So what do you mean by BUY 265K EUR/USD AND the EUR/USD should go down by about 40 pips. We are using a deviation of +60 for the short. (SO SHOULD WE BUY OR SHORT????)

SELL 145K EUR/USD AND If it comes out at 145K or less EUR/USD should go up by about 40 pips. We are using -60 to trigger for long (SELL OR LONG?????)

 

[Flytox]

Hi
your prerelease set up seems against the hype. no?
2: why not UJ? What conditions are not met?
thx.

 

[allan vincent]

i have noticed this same inconsistant analysis before. says one thing then the reverse.

 

[allan vincent]

review the previous trades

good examples of plus, neutral, negative changes there usdjpy goes up if positive therefore eurusd goes down

 

[Jamir0n]

i have noticed this same inconsistant analysis before. says one thing then the reverse.

Guys this Is not a paid signal or mail list. In my opinion, This analysis is designed to be educational as its first goal. Whether its profitable or not comes in the second place, usually depends on trader's mastery of his toOls n setup.

It is For educational purpose only FPA Analysts go I depth to explain both possibilities of sentiments/direction of meovement while trying to forecast the market, non-extensively.

Most signal providers do not explain their recommendation, and if done, it won't be extensive like How its structured here.

For free educational purpose signals. Mr. Morten & Mr. D'Amore Are doing a great job. Only if they can be accessible to member's upon posting or before signal execution time. It would be of greater benifit, educationally, if they answer questions and inquiries more explicitly ( maybe a 30 mins webinar every week for Q&A or start ur own "Power Radio like" web/podcast! )

Please consider it guys. Would be sweet!

Jamir0n- a long time newbie

 

[Jeffpark]

Hi Stavro - For trading this NFP, why do we not take 2 trades. sell & buy, both with no target level or say 40 pips & also with fairly tight eg 10 pip stops & then just cancel the one which is in the wrong direction?

Jeffpark

 

[Flytox]

good examples of plus, neutral, negative changes there usdjpy goes up if positive therefore eurusd goes down

UJ was the best play.

 

[Stavro D'Amore]

UJ was the best play.

What UJ was the best play? for spike what about retracement and pore news? don't just chase the egg guys better to look to see who hatched it.

 

[philip langley]

Hi,Stavro the nzd/usd pn fri 6th only went up to 20pips on my platform was that right, as i am with ufxmarkets,com and wonderd if its workong ok im in the uk dont know if that makes a difrence thanks