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Forex Signal (Friday August 5, 2011 - 8:30am EDT NY Time EDT) - US NFP Employment

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Aug 4, 2011.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    US NFP Employment Change
    Forecast 89K
    Previous 18K
    Pair to trade: EUR/USD
    Triggers we need: BUY -60 SELL +60


    Economical Impact: High
    Typical Result: Forecast is good for the currency
    Occurrence: Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends

    About our Triggers:
    If the US NFP Employment Change number comes out at +149 or more, the EUR/USD should go down by about 40 pips. We are using a deviation of +60 for the short.
    If it comes out at 29 or less EUR/USD should go up by about 40 pips. We are using -60 to trigger for long.

    I would usually consider trading USD/JPY for this release but due to the BOJ intervening and increasing their fund size to 15 trillion, I would keep away from trading news on this pair until I have more information on the BOJ decision.

    Why do we care?
    This is one of the most vital economic data, released shortly after the month ends for the US economy. This combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts and massive volatility

    Method to trade this: Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
    Please keep in mind the possibility of the unemployment rate which is due to come out at the same time, at the expected rate of 9.2%. This number should not conflict with the Employment Changes and we will follow the direction of the news release number before entering any of these strategies.

    Prior to the news release (2-3 mins) I will be looking for a short term LONG position in EUR/USD and I will get out of this trade 30 seconds before the actual release or any spreads that should widen.

    I would recommend spike trading as an option when there is great uncertainty in the markets; also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you’re using an ECN broker.

    If your are not spike trading or if you did do a spike trade and your already out, I will look for a 50% retrace in the original spike before entering a trade. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a level, looking at a 15 min chart.

    Historical Chart and Data for US NFP Employment Change


    What is US NFP Employment Change?
    “Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labour conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labour conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.”

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Aug 4, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Calibillions

    Calibillions Recruit

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    Sorry but just need to ask, what do you mean by trigger of -60 or +60? can you please explain? Thank you so much!
     
  3. Callen

    Callen Recruit

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    Deviation of the results comparing between the forecast and actual.

    Hope it helps :)
     
  4. ertore

    ertore Private

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    Easy bro: forecast is 89 + 60 to sell at least 149. The same if is lower 89 - 60 = 29
     
  5. digamer

    digamer Private, 1st Class

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    eurusd..not the best choice for NFP

    Eurusd went 40pips up on better US-news, while both usdjpy and usdchf reacted "correctly" and the 1st min on them both was perfectly tradable. As I read from another free signal provider this is very usual reaction of EURUSD for US-news...and that is why it is better not to trade NFP on this pair. Much better reason to avoid eurusd then usdjpy (BOJ intervention), in my opinion.

    Last month's NFP is also a very clear example. Big deviation of -71K caused massive (65-75pips) 1min downspikes on usdjpy and usdchf, while again this suggested eurusd went down 30-40 pips. (??)

    Stavro, with all due respect, I wonder why this was not considered and not even mentioned in this trading signal?
     
    #5 digamer, Aug 5, 2011
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2011
  6. strangelove

    strangelove Recruit

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    Word. Anyone with half a brain knows that GBP/JPY is usually a superior pair to trade NFP on. So far I am not impressed with Stavro's inability to get the forex signals out on the previous Friday.

    I use the upcoming signal overview to eliminate the ones that don't have much traction. Henry was always good at hinting at which one or two signals had the most potential each week. I use a proprietary system of quantum entanglement to frontrun these releases to trade the spike, no matter how small by getting in 2-5 minutes before the release. It takes at least 36 hours to set up the SQuIDs and generate enough data for to pull this off.

    [​IMG]

    Stavro seems to be taking his time in getting this out. So far, his previews seem like a stripped down copy and paste of Henry's work. I sure hope he figures this out soon as I prefer to think about the physics rather than the forex side of my research.
     

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