Forex Signal (Friday December 16, 2011 NY TIME 8:30am EDT) – US CORE CPI

Stavro D'Amore

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
547
Hello

Please find attached the trade plan for today.

US CORE CPI
Forecast 0.1%
Previous 0.1%
Pair to trade: USD/JPY
Estimated Pips: 40 pips on initial spike

The numbers we will look for:
BUY USD/JPY 0.3%
SELL GBP/USD at -0.1%

Economic Impact: High (will bring strong volatility)
Typical Result: Good for currency
Occurrence: Released monthly, about 15 days after the month ends

About our Triggers:
We will be looking for a deviation of 0.2 % to BUY USD/JPY and -0.2 to SELL GBP/USD.
If our deviation is hit, there is a strong possibility that the market will move 40 pips on spike immediately; there is a good chance that we will get a 30% retracement before entering if we miss the spike.

What is it? Why does the market care?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD

Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

Felix Trading Indicators
Trading Description's

Pre News
Approximately within the 30 minutes and up to 5 min prior to the news release I will be looking for a short term LONG position using EUR/USD pair.
I would be out of this trade 2 minute before the actual release, or to avoid any spreads that should widen to protect myself.

How to determine my Pre news trade
Please only follow this if you have basic knowledge of technical, if not please practice and use various demo accounts prior to using any professional strategy I suggest. To determine my short position on an MT4 chart, I will pull up a 1mintime frame EUR/USD chart.

I will then load two MA (moving average) indicators to my chart, the first MA I will load will be on set to period 9 whilst the other I will set to a period of 20. I would also recommend you change the colour of both I usually use green and red.

When I see the down trend occur and my MA crosses over I will enter short, I want to be out of this trade in profit at least 2 min before the release. I will have a Stop loss of 15 pips and a TP either when I see the trade looking flat (looking at Volume Bars that is) or when an initial reversal comes to play.

Your MA should look like the chart below, red and green I would have entered short on this trade during the cross over.

MACRSS.jpg


Spike Trading
I do recommend spike trading as an option if you have an Auto clicker.
Please use limit orders or bounds set to 15 pip entry

After Spike
I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will close half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price.

My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame. I expect to be in this trade for a total of 30 mins.

Historical Chart and Data US CORE CPI

All the best

Stavro D’Amore
 
Last edited by a moderator:

yhloh

Recruit
Messages
4
forex signal

Hello,
Do you mind explain what the % means in tems of price:

BUY USD/JPY 0.3%
SELL GBP/USD at -0.1%


Regards
 

Klem

Private
Messages
27
Stavro...CPI no longer moves markets and lately not even in the right direction. Please update your copy/paste CPI document...and do some homework
 

digamer

Private, 1st Class
Messages
30
Stavro...CPI no longer moves markets and lately not even in the right direction. Please update your copy/paste CPI document...and do some homework
+1

Also, if I recall correctly, for the past 7 months it always came with no dev or 0.1 at most..never a proper/tradable spike reaction...not even on eurjpy and other jpy crosses, which it's the best to trade on. Taking risk sentiment in consideration should also be mentioned..actually even added to all the copy-paste's.

Pre-trading this on EURUSD with MA crossover sounds like a 50/50 gamble..but that's only my opinion.
 

Louis123321

Corporal
Messages
175
Thanks for another great signal ! The pre news trading on this just made me a decent amount of pips even though the actual news trade was not triggered.

Keep up the good work.

PS; do you think market will trend downwards now, or keep on retracing to 1.31+ ? eurusd, thanks
 

Jason Aleksei

Failed ALL tests of his claimed psychic abilities.
Messages
19
Pre-trading this on EURUSD with MA crossover sounds like a 50/50 gamble..but that's only my opinion.
Each trader needs to evaluate their own risk tolerances independently. Just because Stavro proposes a potential trade does not require that you take it.
 
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