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Forex Signal (Friday December 2, 2011 - 8:30am EDT) - NFP Payroll Employment

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Dec 1, 2011.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hello

    Please note we have the following release today:

    NFP Payroll Employment
    Forecast 120K
    Previous 80K
    Pair to trade: USD/JPY
    Triggers we need: BUY 180K SELL 80K

    Economical Impact: High
    Typical Result: Actual forecast is good for the currency
    Occurrence: This data Released monthly

    About our Triggers:
    Today we have NFP Payroll Employment Change; it is forecasted to arrive at 120K.
    We are using triggers of 40 to buy USD/JPY If the number comes out at +180 or better we will BUY USD/JPY

    If the news release comes out at 80K or lower I will SHORT USD/JPY We are using for -40 trigger for the short.

    We should see a spike of about 30 pips should our numbers be triggered.

    What is it? Why do we care?
    Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD
    A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

    Method to trade this:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

    Felix Description:
    See Felix indictor description

    Keep in Mind
    Please keep in mind possibility of Revision number before entering any of these strategies.

    Spike
    I'd recommend spike trading as an option when there is great uncertainty in the markets and if you are using an auto clicker.

    After News trade
    I will look for a 50% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will close half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike, and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be Just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a level looking at a 15 min time frame.

    Historical Chart and Data for US NFP Payroll Change


    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Dec 1, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

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    Be Very Careful on this one.

    Risk is the current dominant market force by far, and it wouldn't surprise me if the markets react in the 'opposite' direction they're supposed to almost immediately. For instance, for a good report, logic suggests positive USD...I'd bet it will be negative USD within a minute (or seconds) of release, in deference to the stock markets and the USD risk correlation. Then the EU, GU, AU will all go up...the USDCAD and (even) the USDJPY will go down. If it's a bad report, stocks will react negatively and the USD will strengthen.

    There was a time not long ago that you could trust the USDJPY to react to US news in a predictable fashion...good US news meant USDJPY up, and bad news meant USDJPY down. This was mostly due to a lingering response to the Yen Carry Trade, which is now long dead. I've noticed that the USDJPY is no longer acting this way. It's moving with risk sentiment. Which makes it a risky pair to trade on US news.

    If you trade this, spike or retrace, be conservative on your leverage and watch your stops.

    If you read my posts, you know how I'll be playing this. AUDUSD pair and trading after the news in the direction of risk sentiment...good news going long AUDUSD (short USD)...bad news going short (long USD). But, this is the FX and I could be completely wrong...wouldn't be the first time. So, I'll be not going in too hot either way. Oh...the bigger the deviation, the bigger the spike in the 'correct' direction, and the longer it may take for the reversal to occur. I'm hoping for a number of about 220K (100K deviation). If this happens, the AUDUSD should spike down 50-75 pips briefly, then reverse for at least 100 pip within minutes (or seconds), and follow through for maybe 200 pips within a few hours. If it's like 20K (also 100K deviation), the opposite scenario should play out.

    Good Luck to All!!!
     
  3. matiplo

    matiplo Private

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    Risk is the current dominant market force by far, and it wouldn't surprise me if the markets react in the 'opposite' direction they're supposed to almost immediately. For instance, for a good report, logic suggests positive USD...I'd bet it will be negative USD within a minute (or seconds) of release

    I'm hoping for a number of about 220K (100K deviation ). If this happens, the AUDUSD should spike down 50-75 pips briefly,

    These two parts of your post sound contradictory to me...
    First you state that for a good report USD spikes down.
    Then you state that for a good report USD spikes up (AUDUSD down)

    Could you explain it once again?



    And one more issue:
    Could you share with me your view of following situations?
    In 2.12 (December 2nd) there is USDCAD at CA Employment change and Unemployment rate. It's heading down, expecting numbers good good for CAD; and then unemployment rate deviation is +0.1 and employment change deviation is -38.1 (well beyond common triggers that were +/-20.0), so USDCAD spikes up (with risk aversion direction).

    In 18.11 (November 18th) there is USDCAD at CA Core CPI m/m. It's also heading down, expecting numbers good for CAD; but then Core CPI deviation is only +0.2 and market doesn't reverse its direction. There is small spike down, and USDCAD still continues down, AGAINST RISK AVERSION DIRECTION, that I think should pull up USDCAD: first of all there was enough much down movement before the news, and the second: spike was down, so risk aversion should pull it up even more...

    What is your opinion on these two releases?
     

    Attached Files:

    #3 matiplo, Dec 3, 2011
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2011
  4. Fxonuoha

    Fxonuoha Private, 1st Class

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    Now,how does the revision number affected the outcome of our trades?
     
  5. Fxonuoha

    Fxonuoha Private, 1st Class

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    Now,how do we decipher the risk sentiment and apply that to our trading strategies?:confused:
     

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