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Forex Signal (Friday February 3, 2012 – 8:30am EDT) – US Non-Farm Employment Forecast

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Feb 3, 2012.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hello All,

    Today we have the BIG one US Non-Farm Employment and US Unemployment numbers due to arrive at the same time, please be mindful of the bellow trade plan and be diligent with your trading.

    US Non- Farm Employment Change
    Forecast 150K
    Previous 120K
    Pair to trade: EUR/USD Focus will be on EURUSD

    Numbers we need:
    SELL EUR/USD 210K
    BUY EUR/USD 90K

    Economic Impact: High
    Typical Result: Good for Currency
    Occurrence: monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends
    Spike Probability: Good, we can see 50 pips on initial spike

    About our Triggers:
    US Non- Farm Employment Change forecasted to arrive at 150K
    We are looking for a deviation of 60K to the upside to SELL EUR/USD and a deviation of 60K to the downside to BUY EUR/USD
    So the summary is we get 210K or better I will look to enter a SHORT position on EUR/USD and if we get 90K or lower I will go LONG on EUR/USD.
    Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 50 pips on the initial spike.
    This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike so I recommend trading the retracement method as stated bellow.

    NOTE: We a conflict of US Unemployment numbers that is due to arrive the same time, this is forecasted at 8.5% and is expected to come at 8.5%. Please also note that monthly changes and the revisions in payrolls can be quite volatile.

    What is it? And why does the market care?
    The Non-Farm Employment Change measures the number of employed people during the last month of all non-farming businesses. The total non-farm Employment accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross domestic product of the United States.
    It is the single most important piece of data contained in the employment report, which considered offering the best overview of the economy.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD,
    A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

    Method I use to trade this:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

    There is No pre news for this release, as there is a good chance of a USD sell off, I still believe that pairs such as EUR/USD may have further downslides due to EU current situation.

    I do recommend spike trading as an option. Liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please use no more than a 15 pip limit order to control slippage.

    I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering. I will be looking at a 5 minute chart. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at the original spike price.

    My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyze this.

    Historical Chart and Data for US Non-Farm Employment Change

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
  2. zarni

    zarni Recruit

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    you are nuts
     
  3. shabazzster

    shabazzster Recruit

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    I definatly enjoy chasing dragons with yah Stavro. Thank you.
     
  4. RedRobin06

    RedRobin06 Private

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    Again you are wrong wrong wrong. It was not eur/usd that moved, it was aud/usd. I am never listening to you or anyone on this site again. Goodbye.
     
  5. zarni

    zarni Recruit

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    as i said "you are nuts"...
    i corrected him about a month or 2 ago on same thing and he still didn't get it.
    these people do not trade. they are marketers.
     
  6. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    I seriously don't understand some people!! if this trade plan or any trade plan does not fit your criteria then don't trade it, this is News guidance, If you think AUD is the better pair then trade it, do what you like you are the master of your account not me. So don't go hating the world if you are not trade discipline I had no problem with Euro in the past and if AUD makes you feel better then ill change it it to AUD.

    But don't say I don't trade I have been trading longer and harder than you can imagine.

    Any way what I do here I don't get paid for!!. I do this service out of my time and yes its time very time consuming and if people want to be ungrateful brats because they cant make there own decision in life. Then I will cease to do them.
     
  7. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hhhaha I don't trade???! maybe i should fly you down to my trading desk.
    Dont make judgements they are usually wrong in life.
     
  8. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

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    Ah touche'....

    Stavro was actually correct...the EU did go down on good NFP number. But, the USD was mixed across the board. The AU went UP, the EU went DOWN??? The USDCAD went DOWN, the USDJPY went UP???

    If you can actually make money on this trade consistently...good for you. I avoid it.
     
  9. thierrybl

    thierrybl Recruit

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    Hi,

    When I read that, there is something I'm sure : you don't trade for real money. Or you would be much more umble and respectful of other people experience when you face the market !
    If you take a look at the chart I joined (eurusd 1M), you will see that Eurusd did exactely what Stavro anticipated, after a few minutes of noise : It went down by 90 pips then up by 30 pips (1/3) then down by 50 pips !
    Markets are not predictable and are only a game of probability.
    To will win in trading only when you will have build a personnal method that fits you, using other's experience.
    If you have better results trading AUD, that's fine and adjust Stavro's method to AUD using your own filter. That's the only way to success !

    Good luck in trading.

    Thierry
     

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  10. Anthonia Taiwo

    Anthonia Taiwo Private

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    Starvo has been doing this analysis and most of the time he advises on how to trade which turns out to be true.
    Even EURUSD did move as he said. Starvo was correct.
     

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