Stavro D'Amore
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 547
Hello All,
Today we have the BIG one US Non-Farm Employment and US Unemployment numbers due to arrive at the same time, please be mindful of the bellow trade plan and be diligent with your trading.
US Non- Farm Employment Change
Forecast 150K
Previous 120K
Pair to trade: EUR/USD Focus will be on EURUSD
Numbers we need:
SELL EUR/USD 210K
BUY EUR/USD 90K
Economic Impact: High
Typical Result: Good for Currency
Occurrence: monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends
Spike Probability: Good, we can see 50 pips on initial spike
About our Triggers:
US Non- Farm Employment Change forecasted to arrive at 150K
We are looking for a deviation of 60K to the upside to SELL EUR/USD and a deviation of 60K to the downside to BUY EUR/USD
So the summary is we get 210K or better I will look to enter a SHORT position on EUR/USD and if we get 90K or lower I will go LONG on EUR/USD.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 50 pips on the initial spike.
This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike so I recommend trading the retracement method as stated bellow.
NOTE: We a conflict of US Unemployment numbers that is due to arrive the same time, this is forecasted at 8.5% and is expected to come at 8.5%. Please also note that monthly changes and the revisions in payrolls can be quite volatile.
What is it? And why does the market care?
The Non-Farm Employment Change measures the number of employed people during the last month of all non-farming businesses. The total non-farm Employment accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross domestic product of the United States.
It is the single most important piece of data contained in the employment report, which considered offering the best overview of the economy.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD,
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
There is No pre news for this release, as there is a good chance of a USD sell off, I still believe that pairs such as EUR/USD may have further downslides due to EU current situation.
I do recommend spike trading as an option. Liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please use no more than a 15 pip limit order to control slippage.
I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering. I will be looking at a 5 minute chart. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at the original spike price.
My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyze this.
Historical Chart and Data for US Non-Farm Employment Change
All the best
Stavro D’Amore
Today we have the BIG one US Non-Farm Employment and US Unemployment numbers due to arrive at the same time, please be mindful of the bellow trade plan and be diligent with your trading.
US Non- Farm Employment Change
Forecast 150K
Previous 120K
Pair to trade: EUR/USD Focus will be on EURUSD
Numbers we need:
SELL EUR/USD 210K
BUY EUR/USD 90K
Economic Impact: High
Typical Result: Good for Currency
Occurrence: monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends
Spike Probability: Good, we can see 50 pips on initial spike
About our Triggers:
US Non- Farm Employment Change forecasted to arrive at 150K
We are looking for a deviation of 60K to the upside to SELL EUR/USD and a deviation of 60K to the downside to BUY EUR/USD
So the summary is we get 210K or better I will look to enter a SHORT position on EUR/USD and if we get 90K or lower I will go LONG on EUR/USD.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 50 pips on the initial spike.
This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike so I recommend trading the retracement method as stated bellow.
NOTE: We a conflict of US Unemployment numbers that is due to arrive the same time, this is forecasted at 8.5% and is expected to come at 8.5%. Please also note that monthly changes and the revisions in payrolls can be quite volatile.
What is it? And why does the market care?
The Non-Farm Employment Change measures the number of employed people during the last month of all non-farming businesses. The total non-farm Employment accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross domestic product of the United States.
It is the single most important piece of data contained in the employment report, which considered offering the best overview of the economy.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD,
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
There is No pre news for this release, as there is a good chance of a USD sell off, I still believe that pairs such as EUR/USD may have further downslides due to EU current situation.
I do recommend spike trading as an option. Liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please use no more than a 15 pip limit order to control slippage.
I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering. I will be looking at a 5 minute chart. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at the original spike price.
My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyze this.
Historical Chart and Data for US Non-Farm Employment Change
All the best
Stavro D’Amore
