Forex Signal (Friday, March 19, 07:00 am EST) Canadian Core CPI m/m

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
753
Hi there,

This is Crazy Cat writing.

On Friday, March 19th (07:00 am New York Time) we will have Canadian Core CPI m/m coming out. It is expected to read 0.3. Last month it read 0.1.

Please read what this indicator means and how it affects the USD/CAD by going to this link: http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/economic-indicator-descriptions/7508-canadian-cpi.html

The trigger for this indicator is 0.3. This means that if Canadian CPI m/m comes out at 0.6 or higher, USD/CAD will probably go down by 30 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report. If it comes out at 0.0 or negative, USD/CAD will probably go up by 30 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report.

This is very unreliable report so feel free to skip it. I will skip it myself although some people still want to get triggers and trade it anyway. Sometimes the price moves nicely, some other time it does not react at all. I prefer higher probability reports to trade as my time is very limited.

Personally I never trade this report, I don't trust it, and it's crappy.

I highly recommend you study the entire history and charts of this report by following this link: Forex News Trading | Details and History for CAD Core CPI m/m

I hope you will not lose money on this report.
-Crazy Cat
 
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West Coast Pips

Sergeant
Messages
132
Why trade this at all?

As I suggested earlier in the week this is a report to avoid. Back on March 19, 2009 core cpi m/m deviated by a big +0.4. All the other cpi components deviated in a very positive way.

Have a look what happened to usd/cad for this release: Forex news trading currency exchange charts. Usd/cad barely moved down 15 pips and the 1 minute candle had a pretty good pull back on it too. One must not forget that your broker will not necessarily fill you at the top of this bearish candle. Factor in to that spread and you may well have got a terrible entry.

Price then went long on usd/cad against the cpi results. One June 18, 2009 core cpi m/m deviated by +0.3: Forex news trading currency exchange charts. This also had poor follow through.

I know there has not been any trade/release worth looking at this week. Just hang in until next week when there are a few good reports coming out. I have traded CAD CPI for almost 4 years and will definitely say avoid it.
 
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Paul Onakoya

Recruit
Messages
7
After more research...

After more research, I concur with crazy cat and west coast pips that this report is really crappy. There hasn't been a big enough deviation in more than 3 years so there's no point even bothering with this one. Wait for 1.5hrs and trade the retail sales instead with 1.7% trigger.
 

Paul Onakoya

Recruit
Messages
7
The craziness of news trading :)

This hit crazy cat's trigger and moved 50+ pips. Don't you just love news trading! Previous triggers didn't show this type of reaction. Oh well...
 

grelminar

Recruit
Messages
3
Right as this report was released the usd/cad shot down about 60 pips in .0001 seconds.

At least that is what I witnessed with my connection.

Was a no trade.
 

West Coast Pips

Sergeant
Messages
132
Right as this report was released the usd/cad shot down about 60 pips in .0001 seconds.

At least that is what I witnessed with my connection.

Was a no trade.
Well this release was an exception and the spikes for CAD pairs were very nice. This has not happened for a long time. Those that traded it and made money, well done. I still feel this was not worth the risk.

The $CAD is looking for any means to get on parity with $USD.
 
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