Forex Signal (Friday October 7, 2011 - 8:30am EDT) - US NFP Employment Change

[digamer]

On eurusd market did the opposite to the signal, that exactly was my point when asking about pair of choice.

On JPY crosses price went nicely according to the release.

 

[papao]

risk aversion trade?

Do yourselves potentially a big favor and check out: 1. The European stock markets, and, 2. The US stock futures BEFORE you set up for this trade. If stocks are up big...be careful about selling the EURUSD (strong USD) on a good number. If stocks are down big...be careful about buying the EURUSD (selling the USD). To ignore this advice would be going against the risk aversion trade, and that could cost you big.

hi pipdog. Your analisys seems to be correct (IF i've understood!). Would you be so kind to tell us where we can read something about this "risk aversion trade"? (i mean, i know what "risk aversion" is ("Risk aversion is the reluctance of a person to accept a bargain with an uncertain payoff rather than another bargain with a more certain, but possibly lower, expected payoff.", from wikipedia), but i can't understand what means in this context!).
Thank you in advance

 

[PipDog]

No Offense Intended

Pip dog,

When there is uncertainty in the markets is the best news trade.
EUR/USD is acting well it’s at the correct levels fundamentally.
Yes I do look at the news and markets all day, My back ground knowledge in markets is not in FX JUST its on a global scale from stocks bond futures and even Forex and Stockbroking operations.
I have worked for Merrill Lynch and many investment banks and Forex companies so when it comes to risk its my number one goal.

I’m sure members will see the results at the end of the day I provide signals here for FREE to assist people not to make profit from them, If I wanted profit from them I would advertise my personal services here and that I don’t do. So some times free advice is the best.

Cheers
Stavro D'Amore

Stavro,

Please don't take this personally. I also could list some things on my resume, past experience, etc. Really doesn't matter. I was trying to give the nubes here some insight with respect to my experience. I do respect what you're doing here. It's just that NFP is the toughest FX news trade going.

I will let the results speak to my call.

 

[TonyaSerkova]

Thak you all for your responces.
I didn't want to blame anyone here,and i really apreciate all the work from stavros and other members.
I just wanted to make sure that i moved as i should have moved according to the signals,but the market didn't make us the favour.Anyway i was demo trading at that time.
Peace!

 

[Boko Maru]

hi pipdog. Your analisys seems to be correct (IF i've understood!). Would you be so kind to tell us where we can read something about this "risk aversion trade"? (i mean, i know what "risk aversion" is ("Risk aversion is the reluctance of a person to accept a bargain with an uncertain payoff rather than another bargain with a more certain, but possibly lower, expected payoff.", from wikipedia), but i can't understand what means in this context!).
Thank you in advance

I don't know of specific reading to recommend, but it's not hard to understand. Currencies like USD, JPY, and CHF (somewhat) are considered "safe haven" currencies. Meaning if the world economy is going down the toilet, investors run to these currencies as they are considered "safe havens." Currencies like GBP, AUD, NZD, EUR, are typically not considered safe havens, and they are dumped when all looks bad economically. Then the same happens but in reverse when all looks rosy from a global economic perspective; meaning USD gets sold, and the other "non safe-haven" currencies get bought.

Take a look at the financial crisis of late 2008 (check your daily or monthly charts). Look what happened to USD. It got incredibly strong. Why? Because of all the great economic news coming out of the US? Hardly. It happened because everyone thought the world was ending, and they ran to the USD as the best "safe haven." Also happened with JPY as well.

That's pretty much it; not much more to it than that. Hope it helps...

 

[papao]

thank you

Hi Boko Maru, thank you for the answer. Now it's a bit clear.