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Forex Signal (Mon March 21 2011, 10:00am NY Time EST) - US Existing Home Sales

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Mar 21, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    US Existing Home Sales is expected to drop close to 4.7% from the previous month as current foreclosure rate is still remaining resiliently high. Here's the forecast:

    Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.15M Previous 5.36M
    ACTION: EURUSD SELL 5.55M / BUY 4.75M

    The Trade Plan

    Because the Housing sector is one of the most focused news events out of the US, this release will certainly cause some volatility in the market, especially if our tradable figures (+/- 400K) were hit. With the focus of the nation, and of the world, on the status of U.S. housing sector, this release may bring about a strong sentiment of risk appetite/aversion if our BUY/SELL trigger is hit…

    If our buy tradable deviation is hit, or 5.55M figure is released, we should look to SELL EURUSD after the release. If our buy tradable deviation is hit, or 4.75M figure is release, we should look to BUY EURUSD as USD should be sold off again.

    We'll be looking to trade this release using the after-news retracement trading method. We'll wait for the release, wait for market reaction, and wait for retracement before jumping in. For more information:
    Henry's News Trading Method.

    The Market
    With the U.S. housing market under pressure, the medium survey by Bloomberg shows around 4.7% of drop for this month, and this is largely due to the bad weather as the National Association of Realtors is likely to state today.

    With foreclosure inventory rising another 2.2 Million in January, 4.7 Million households are behind on their mortgages, and S&P Homebuilder Index showing 9.7% decline in the last 12 months ending March 18, the US Housing sector is likely to remain under pressure.

    Additional Thoughts
    This release is scheduled at 10:00am US Time, usually it is the last high impact news for the NY session, so we may see more volatile market regardless of the release figure because many traders may just be waiting for this news to be out of the way first.

    Pre-news Considerations
    There is no pre-news opportunity for this release.

    Definition:
    “Measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because large purchases tend to be made by consumers that are optimistic and confident in their financial position. The sale of a home also triggers commissions for real estate agents, and often home owners will purchase goods such as appliances and furniture shortly after purchasing a home. Traders watch this report closely as it’s the month’s first demand-side housing indicator to be released.”

    Historical Data & Chart For US Existing Home Sales


    Thanks,


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    #1 Henry Liu, Mar 21, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016

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