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Forex Signal (Mon November 1, 2010 10:30pm EST NY Time) AU RBA Interest Rate...

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Dec 6, 2010.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged in November, as all 25 analysts agree in a survey by Bloomberg… Here’s forecast:

    10:30pm (NY Time) AU RBA Rate Decision Forecast 4.75% Previous 4.75%
    ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 5.00%

    The Trade Plan

    If RBA hikes rates, we should jump in and buy AUDUSD or other AUD crosses as the expectation for a rate hike is less than 10%. If RBA decides to keep rates unchanged, we could a sell-off as the accompanied RBA statement may be dovish in light of recent news events.

    Important Note: The only time I'd recommend a spike trade is when there are so much momentum pushing this currency that regardless of spread and slippage, you should end up in profit if you just hold on to the trade. For more information on my trading methods, read:
    Henry's News Trading Method.

    The Market
    All 25 analysts (surveyed by Bloomberg) agree that RBA will keep rates unchanged. Sydney Futures Exhange is showing less than 10% of chance for a rate hike during this RBA meeting, and the next meeting for RBA is in February 2011...

    With current quarterly inflation reading dropping, 3rd quarter GDP missing expectation, RBA really does not have any reason to hike interest rate during this meeting. Not mentioning the significant slowdown in the economy since 3rd quarter, which may result in missing the 3.5% GDP target for 2010.

    Additional Thoughts
    I'll be looking for decline in the AUDUSD immediately following RBA's statements. I don't see anything positive out of RBA for the time being, of course, I could be wrong.

    Pre-Market Consideration
    There will be no pre-news trading today.

    Historical Chart & Data For RBA Interest Rate Decision

    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Dec 6, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Ahmed H

    Ahmed H Private

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    Got 20 pips soon after the release.. Thanks mate..
     

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