Stavro D'Amore
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 547
Hello
Please see my trade plan below
AU CPI q/q
Forecast 0.7%
Previous 0.0%
Pair to trade: AUD/USD
Numbers we need:
BUY AUD/USD 1.0%
SELL AUD/USD 0.4%
Expected Pips probability: 35
Economic Impact: Extreme
Typical Result: Good for currency
Occurrence 25 days after the quarter ends
About our Triggers:
AU CPI q/q is forecasted to arrive at 0.7%
We are looking for a deviation of 0.3% to LONG the AUD and a deviation of -0.3 to SHORT the AUD.
If the numbers we get 1% or better I will look to enter a LONG position on AUD/USD and if we get 0.4% or worse I will go SHORT on AUD/USD.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 35 pips on the initial spike. This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike
What is it? And why does the market care?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive and bullish for the AUD
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative and bearish for the AUD
Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
Pre News trading
Approximately 25 minutes prior to the news release I will be looking for a short term SHORT position in AUD/USD.
I would be out of this trade 5 minute before the actual release, or to avoid any spreads that should widen.
After Spike
I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will close half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame.
Spike
I do recommend spike trading as an option when there is great uncertainty in the markets; also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker.
Please note
Australian data is known for Latency should the spike begin and your Auto clicker has not provided a number please cancel your spike trade to avoid yourself getting caught with slippage; you will have a better chance using retracement and pre news methods.
Historical Chart and Data for AU CPI q/q
All the best
Stavro D'Amore
Please see my trade plan below
AU CPI q/q
Forecast 0.7%
Previous 0.0%
Pair to trade: AUD/USD
Numbers we need:
BUY AUD/USD 1.0%
SELL AUD/USD 0.4%
Expected Pips probability: 35
Economic Impact: Extreme
Typical Result: Good for currency
Occurrence 25 days after the quarter ends
About our Triggers:
AU CPI q/q is forecasted to arrive at 0.7%
We are looking for a deviation of 0.3% to LONG the AUD and a deviation of -0.3 to SHORT the AUD.
If the numbers we get 1% or better I will look to enter a LONG position on AUD/USD and if we get 0.4% or worse I will go SHORT on AUD/USD.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 35 pips on the initial spike. This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike
What is it? And why does the market care?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive and bullish for the AUD
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative and bearish for the AUD
Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
Pre News trading
Approximately 25 minutes prior to the news release I will be looking for a short term SHORT position in AUD/USD.
I would be out of this trade 5 minute before the actual release, or to avoid any spreads that should widen.
After Spike
I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will close half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame.
Spike
I do recommend spike trading as an option when there is great uncertainty in the markets; also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker.
Please note
Australian data is known for Latency should the spike begin and your Auto clicker has not provided a number please cancel your spike trade to avoid yourself getting caught with slippage; you will have a better chance using retracement and pre news methods.
Historical Chart and Data for AU CPI q/q
All the best
Stavro D'Amore
I've been spike trading for years, and have what I thought was the best setup possible without spending 10's of thousands per month. But if you have something you're willing to share, you can always PM me...