Forex Signal (Monday April 30, 2012 – 8:30am EDT) – CA GDP m/m

Stavro D'Amore

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hello All,

Today we have CA GDP m/m results due at 8:30am, please find my trade plan and synopsis below.

Canadian GDP m/m
Forecast 0.2%
Previous 0.1%
Pair to trade: USD/CAD

Numbers we need:
Deviation Triggers -0.2

SELL USD/CAD 0.4% or Better
Deviation Trigger +0.2

Economic Impact: High
Typical Result: Good for Currency
Occurrence: 60 days after the month ends
Spike Probability: Good, we can see 30 pips on initial spike

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About our Triggers:
CA GDP m/m is forecasted to arrive at 0.2%
We are looking for a deviation of 0.2% either way on this trade.
If we get 0.4% or better I will look to enter a SHORT position on USD/CAD and if we get
0.0% or more negative I will go LONG on USD/CAD.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 30 pips on the initial spike. We have no known conflict for this release. This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike

What is it? And why does the market care?
A comprehensive measure of a Canada s overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP is a significant report in FX Market, serving as one of the primary indicators of a countries overall economic health. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may prompt monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus positive GDP readings are generally bullish for the Canadian Dollar, while negative readings are generally bearish. Most production reports that lead to Canadian GDP are released before the official GDP number. Therefore, actual GDP figures usually confirm expectations. However, an unexpected release can move markets due to the significance of the figure.

Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will close half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price.

To determine the retrace I will be using Fibonacci retracement based on daily Highs and lows.

My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame.

I do recommend spike trading as an option if you are using an ECN broker with auto clicker software or live news feed.

All the best

Stavro D’Amore
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