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Forex Signal (Sun July 3, 2011, 9:30pm NY Time EST) - AU Retail Sales m/m

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Jul 1, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

    Jul 5, 2010
    Likes Received:
    We´ll be getting the Retail Sales figure from Australia today once again, and if you´ve been following news out of Australia, you´d know that Retail Sales has been a sticky point for Aussie economy and a strong improvement may change the short term trend for the currency. Here´s the forecast:

    9:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 1.1%
    ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.8% SELL -0.2%

    The Trade Plan
    The deviation that we are looking for the Australian Retail Sales m/m release is for a minimum of 0.5%. If we get a 0.8% (or better) we´ll look to buy and if we get -0.2% (or worse), we´d look to SELL. There is a high probability of market movement of over 50 pips in the next 2 hours if we get our deviation.

    We´ll be looking for an after-news retracement trade and we´ll do the 3 W´s. Wait for the deviation, Wait for the market to move with momentum first, and Wait for a decent retracement. For more information on my trading methods, please read:
    Henry Liu's Trading Method

    The Market
    Australian Retail Sales are expected to remain strong due to the low level of unemployment rate and the general fundamental outlook of its economy. Inflationary pressure remained on trend which is the reason why RBA decided to keep rates unchanged at the present moment.

    With Household spending rising to the highest level in 17 months last month, it is possible we may see a slightly better than expected Retail Sales figure today, especially when you also consider the household savings also have risen for the month of May.

    Additional Thoughts
    AUDUSD is a very slow moving currency pair. If the release hits our deviation, we may have to jump in sooner than later... We could see very little retracement, if any, if we get a huge surprise in the market. It is also important to consider the low liquidity market condition as well.

    Pre-news Consideration
    There is no pre-news sentiment for this release.

    "Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders payclose attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises."

    Historical Chart and Data for AU Retail Sales m/m


    #1 Henry Liu, Jul 1, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Callen

    Callen Recruit

    Jul 3, 2011
    Likes Received:
    Looking forward to this tomorrow morning.

    Thanks Henry, it's exciting. :)

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