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Forex Signal (Thu April 21 2011, 8:30am NY Time EST) - CAD Core Retail Sales m/m

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Apr 20, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Retail Sales is usually a very tradable release as traders draw direct correlation between retail activities with economic health. Here’s Forecast:

    Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.0%
    ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.0% / SELL 1.0%

    The Trade Plan

    I’m going to be looking for a deviation around 0.5% for this news. Since the forecast is at +0.5%, if we get a 0.0% or worse, it would be negative for the CAD and we’ll be looking to BUY USD/CAD; however, if the opposite is true, or a 1.0% of actual release, I’ll be looking to SELL USD/CAD.

    I’ll be looking to trade this release using my after-news retracement method. The idea is to wait for the release, wait for market to spike first, and then wait for a decent retracement before getting in.

    For more information on my trading methods, please read:
    Henry Liu's Trading Method

    The Market
    USDCAD continues to trade lower with the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East affecting Crude Oil production. This has been the primary reason for the heavy appreciation of CAD. Although G-7 countries intervened to stabilize markets, crude oil may continue to rise with fears of a supply shortage in the Middle East. As far as from a fundamental point of view, CAD is still a bit overvalued at the current level, and I believe if and when the geopolitical factor subsides, CAD will weaken significantly.

    Retail spending is expected to go up .5% from last month which should yield a positive outlook for economic growth. BOC will remain cautious of these numbers leading households to cut on spending in the future.

    Additional Thoughts
    USD/CAD is the recommended pair, if we get a strong deviation, don’t expect much retracement as this pair should move steadily and gradually until after the European market close, which is around 12:30pm EST.

    Pre-news Consideration
    There is no pre-news trade for this release…

    Definition
    Our focus is on the Core Retail Sales release and not the headline Retail Sales release; Retail Sales releases from Canada is a month on month release, and basically it’s a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, and the Core release is the same Retail Sales but excluding most volatile components, Automotive Components, which makes up about 25% and it varies seasonly. A better release generally means more consumer spending, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency. And the CORE reading provides a far more accurate look of the actual economy.


    Historical Chart and Data for CAD Core Retail Sales m/m




    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Apr 20, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. phil2443

    phil2443 Recruit

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    Results

    Where is the quickest place on the net to find out the results of these forecasts or news results in order to trade on the result??
     

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