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Forex Signal (Thu December 16 2010, 4:30am NY Time EST) - UK Retail Sales

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Dec 15, 2010.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Today’s Retail Sales number from UK will be widely watched as this is a high impact yet tradable report. Here is the forecast for this release:

    4:30am (NY Time) Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.5%
    ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.0% SELL 0.0%


    The Trade Plan
    Retail Sales by definition is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.

    Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is 0.5% to BUY and 0.5% to SELL. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 72%. We’ll be looking to BUY GBP/USD if we get a 1.0% or better release, and SELL GBP/USD if we get a 0.0% or worse.

    We'll be looking for an after-news retracement trade for this release. For more information on my trading methods:
    Henry's News Trading Methods.

    The Market
    Market has been selling off GBP for the past few sessions, as a matter of fact, GBP has probably lost more ground against the USD than EUR, which is odd since Spain was the country with its sovereign credit rating under review yesterday.

    However, as we approach the 1.5500 psychological level, I believe we could see a possible reversal, especially if we get a strong Retail Sales release.

    Additional Thoughts
    There might be a chance to SELL EURGBP as well as BUY GBPUSD in the event of a better than expected release, as GBP has been under considerable pressure from both EUR and USD recently.

    Pre-news Consideration
    There will be no pre-news trade for this release.

    For historical chart & data for UK Retail Sales


    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Dec 15, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. samjhajj

    samjhajj Recruit

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    GBP Sell off

    HI there
    i have traded the GBP CPI and got long on a better than expected CPI and suddenly the sell off started. Can you please tell me if you have an idea why is this massive sell off of the sterling ? GBP was the worst performer even worst than EUR. I didnt see a reason of this sell off. do u have an idea? did you trade the cable CPI ?
    Thanks
     
  3. tantric

    tantric Recruit

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    Thanks Henry .
     
  4. samjhajj

    samjhajj Recruit

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    UK retail sale better than expected and cable having hard time to break 1.56

    UK retail sale better than expected and cable having hard time to break 1.56
     
  5. johnstevens777

    johnstevens777 Recruit

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    rogue trader

    Thanks Henry i've been trading your signals for a while now and i'v had a winner every time. Keep it up mate.
     
  6. sutemali

    sutemali Recruit

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    This is only way to earn in forex...thank you Henry...
     
  7. Cathy Corpuz

    Cathy Corpuz Recruit

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    Re: Forex Signal

    Great Post henry!
     

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