Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
Today’s Retail Sales number from UK will be widely watched as this is a high impact yet tradable report. Here is the forecast for this release:
4:30am (NY Time) Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.5%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.0% SELL 0.0%
The Trade Plan
Retail Sales by definition is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.
Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is 0.5% to BUY and 0.5% to SELL. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 72%. We’ll be looking to BUY GBP/USD if we get a 1.0% or better release, and SELL GBP/USD if we get a 0.0% or worse.
We'll be looking for an after-news retracement trade for this release. For more information on my trading methods:
Henry's News Trading Methods.
The Market
Market has been selling off GBP for the past few sessions, as a matter of fact, GBP has probably lost more ground against the USD than EUR, which is odd since Spain was the country with its sovereign credit rating under review yesterday.
However, as we approach the 1.5500 psychological level, I believe we could see a possible reversal, especially if we get a strong Retail Sales release.
Additional Thoughts
There might be a chance to SELL EURGBP as well as BUY GBPUSD in the event of a better than expected release, as GBP has been under considerable pressure from both EUR and USD recently.
Pre-news Consideration
There will be no pre-news trade for this release.
For historical chart & data for UK Retail Sales
Thanks,
4:30am (NY Time) Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.5%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.0% SELL 0.0%
The Trade Plan
Retail Sales by definition is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.
Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is 0.5% to BUY and 0.5% to SELL. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 72%. We’ll be looking to BUY GBP/USD if we get a 1.0% or better release, and SELL GBP/USD if we get a 0.0% or worse.
We'll be looking for an after-news retracement trade for this release. For more information on my trading methods:
Henry's News Trading Methods.
The Market
Market has been selling off GBP for the past few sessions, as a matter of fact, GBP has probably lost more ground against the USD than EUR, which is odd since Spain was the country with its sovereign credit rating under review yesterday.
However, as we approach the 1.5500 psychological level, I believe we could see a possible reversal, especially if we get a strong Retail Sales release.
Additional Thoughts
There might be a chance to SELL EURGBP as well as BUY GBPUSD in the event of a better than expected release, as GBP has been under considerable pressure from both EUR and USD recently.
Pre-news Consideration
There will be no pre-news trade for this release.
For historical chart & data for UK Retail Sales
Thanks,
Last edited by a moderator: