Forex Signal (Thu February 10 2011, 7:00am NY Time EST) - UK BOE Interest Rate

Henry Liu

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
473
BOE (Bank of England) will be rendering its interest rate decision today, and it would provide strong volatility in the market if BOE's final decision turns out to be a surprise, here's the forecast:

7:00am (NY Time) UK Official Bank Rate Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) Forecast 200B Previous 200B
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.75% (Rate) SELL 225B (APF)


The Trade Plan
In the extremely unlikely event BOE hikes rate to 0.75%, we'll buy GBP/USD immediately on a spike trade. Because of the level of this surprise, I think we'll see a strong trend change for GBP in the next few weeks, so we should BUY and keep a small portion for larger gains...

On the other hand, if we get a surprise increase in the APF or better known as quantitative easing, it would send a bearish signal to the market, and we should SELL GBP/USD immediately.

I'll be trading this release using my Spike Trading Method, for more information:
Henry's Trading Methods.

The Market
UK’s BOE, Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is once again scheduled to release their interest rate decision today and the expectations are to keep both their official bank rates at 0.50% and APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) of 200 Billion Pound unchanged, according to all 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The important focus as usual will be the accompanying BOE Statement if they decide to release one, and it is customary for BOE to only release a rate statement if there is a change in either the Interest Rate or the APF.

With the current market emphasis on economic recovery, there is no chance for BOE to hike rates during this meeting and become responsible for the much dreaded double-dip recession...

JP Morgan Chase is pricing in about 40% of a 25 basis point (0.25%) rate hike at the earliest by May of 2011... Probability of rate hike for today is less than 1%.

Additional Thoughts
If BOE surprises the market, we should enter on a BUY immediately because we should see strong demand for GBP and this demand will be sustained for weeks... so it doesn't really matter if you get slipped 50 pips or your broker widened your spread, it should work out in the end...

If BOE decides to keep everything unchanged, we should stay out of the market as there is no reason to be in.

Pre-News Consideration
Since the forecast is unanimous for unchanged on both interest rate and APF, there is no pre-news sentiment on this release.

Historical chart and data for UK BOE Interest Rate


Thanks,


 
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godwinekpen

Recruit
Messages
6
Thanks Henry

Thank you so much Henry, i love trading with your news analysis. God bless you and your team workers
 

godwinekpen

Recruit
Messages
6
Thanks Henry

Thank you so much Henry, i love trading with your news analysis. God bless you and your team workers
 
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