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Forex Signal (Thu February 24 2011, 10:00am NY Time EST) - US New Home Sales

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Feb 23, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    U.S. New Home Sales usually follows the trend of Existing Home Sales, therefore we are likely to see a slightly stronger release today. Here is the forecast:

    10:00am NY Time New Home Sales Forecast 330K Previous 329K
    ACTION: SELL 400K EURUSD BUY 260K EURUSD


    The Trade Plan
    We’ll trade this release using a deviation of 70K; if the release is lower, it would strengthened risk aversion sentiment and we should look to BUY EURUSD; if the number is higher, it could provide a temporary support for the pair and we may see a slight rally in USD/JPY and we could SELL EURUSD if the market is showing bias towards selling Euro.

    We'll be looking for a possible after-news retracement trade. As I have explained in previous analysis, we need to wait for the release, wait for the market to spike, and wait for decent retracement. This is the 3 "W"s of Retracement Trading system. It is especially important to make sure there is a momentum during the spike before jumping in. For more information, read:
    Henry's News Trading Method.

    The Market
    With yesterday's Existing Home Sales surprising the market with a 90K+ deviation, we could see similar trend in the New Home Sales today... Of course, current US economy is still struggling and I do expect to see the housing market to be lagging the recovery, therefore unless we get our tradable deviation, it's probably best to stay out of the market.

    Additional Thoughts
    With average home prices falling 2.4% for the same period as reported by Case Shiller, it is likely that the current trend for Home Sales may just not be enough to change market perception of a lagging housing sector.

    Pre-news Consideration
    There is no pre-news for this release.

    Definition:
    “Measures the annualized number of new residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because the housing market is a leading gauge for the overall economy. A high level of housing activity signals that the construction industry is healthy and that consumers have the capital to make large investments. More importantly, new housing activity creates an economic ripple effect as home owners buy goods such as appliances and furniture for their homes, and builders buy raw materials and hire more workers to meet demand.”

    Historical Chart & Data For US New Home Sales


    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Feb 23, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Crashgtti

    Crashgtti Recruit

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    HI

    I'm new here.....so let's try to learn about trade release news....

    Thank's for signals and explains....many helps...

    :D
     
  3. shekoni

    shekoni Recruit

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    ;) am so fresh in fx and i really preferred fundamental to technical analysis. so really want to learn from the best and the best is you. i watch ur retracement and its fascinating.thanks for the heads-up.
     
  4. godwinekpen

    godwinekpen Recruit

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    Thanks Henry

    Thanks Henry.
     
  5. Crashgtti

    Crashgtti Recruit

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    Nice........i take 30 pips (i try to trade 10 - 30 pips a day for now).....thank's Henry:D
     
  6. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

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    You Say Your New...

    So you're new to trading FX news. OK. If you were looking to take a position based upon Henry's analysis and advice...you would not of even got into a trade. No trigger...No trade.

    So, if you took a trade...what, went long EURUSD post news?...you did this on your own. Don't thank Henry.
     
  7. Maluco

    Maluco Private

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    You guys have to be careful on trading the news...

    I trade them myself but there are more to it than just a red or green number on the screen. New Home Sales was just an example, so was the Existing Home Sales yesterday.

    I also think that most of the US News in spite of the numbers, has got a double meaning, and if you are not following the market you will get burnt. News from EUR, GBP and AUD have got better consistency.

    Just my 0.02c.

    Maluco
     
  8. Crashgtti

    Crashgtti Recruit

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    Yes i'm new on news trade.....i have a sistem on daily trade, but i never trade in important news time (open position cca. 30 min + or - T).....
    I folow the NFP about 1 year and analyse the option buy / sell in that time on my own and try it on demo and still do that......so now i try in all that news who are important....and now i found post about that time - news here...

    I thank Henry for that, because he do that post - analysis (buy / sell option).

    I don't change my sistem for now, only maybe upgrade with one trade in news time....

    Sorry about my english...
     

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