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Forex Signal (Thu January 6 2011, 10:00am NY Time EST) - CA IVEY PMI

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Jan 5, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    We'll be getting Canada IVEY PMI today, since this is a leading indicator, traders pay attention for this release, especially during the same week prior to Canada Employment Changes. Here's the forecast:

    10:00am (NY Time) CA IVEY PMI Forecast 53.5 Previous 57.5
    ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 56.5 SELL 50.0


    The Trade Plan
    Our tradable surprise factor is 3.0. IVEY PMI is usually tradable before the Canadian Employment Changes, however it is important to note that IVEY PMI is a leading indicator and Employment Change is a lagging indicator, and both are figures from different month but the general market seems to ignore that.

    We'll look to BUY USDCAD if we get 50.0 or less, and we'll look to SELL USDCAD if we get 56.5 or better. I'll be using Retracement Trading method. To find out more about my trading system, read:
    Henry's News Trading Methods.

    The Market
    We’ll focus on the IVEY PMI (IVEY Purchasing Manager’s Index) from Canada today, it is the equivalent of both ISM PMI’s out of US where purchasing managers of all sectors of the economy participate in this survey. And as with PMIs, they are all considered as leading indicators with the medium point at 50, therefore a reading of above 50 would be considered as expansion in the economy whereas a reading below 50 would be considered as contraction in the economy.

    With Canadian Dollar gaining across the board on the back of record high crude oil price for the past 12 months, a stronger than expected release could push USDCAD down to the 0.9900 level once again... However, on a weaker than expected release, we should see USDCAD move above 1.0100 or 1.0200 by the end of the week.

    Additional Thoughts
    USDCAD may not retrace much after a strong release, the retracement may also take place in the first 5 minutes, so once we see a significant retracement, get ready to jump in.

    Pre-news Considerations
    No Pre-news trade for this release.

    DEFINITION
    “The Ivey Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers from all sectors of the economy, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.”

    Historical Chart & Data For IVEY PMI

    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Jan 5, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. mohan02

    mohan02 Private

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    Hi Henry,

    As usual many thanks for this valuable and continuous service from you.

    I believe there is a mistake on your title:

    ACTION: "USD/CAD BUY 56.5 SELL 50.0"

    Should it not be

    ACTION: "USD/CAD SELL 56.5 BUY 50.0" instead.

    Thank you and Regards,

    Mohan
     
  3. Cathy Corpuz

    Cathy Corpuz Recruit

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    This is great...Seeing throught the growth of ones income.. Keep posted :)
     
  4. Maluco

    Maluco Private

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    Pretty sure it's a mistake... I spent a good 5 ms before reading your post trying to understand why Henry gave us those directions.
     
  5. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

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    Not Much Spike...Negligible Retracement

    Did anyone try a shot on this one. Nice deviation...not enough reaction. Good luck....
     
  6. Maluco

    Maluco Private

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    Had a bad feeling on that trade as I got in too late and told to myself.. oh, no. I managed to get out of it with 3 pip though.
    It took too long to move.
     
  7. Agent86

    Agent86 Sergeant

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    Seems this is the actual directive below a listed in Henry's post.

    Was a good signal I was not home to take this trade but I'm watching
    I put a set stop at fib level target on 5min chart with advanced entry so I would have easily made +10 pips

    Nice signal thanks again.
     
  8. bravochico

    bravochico Recruit

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    ISM missing from the calendar for Jan 6

    Unless I need new reading glasses, ISM is missing from calendar today. That's a pretty widely followed report to be missing on an econominc calendar.
     

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