1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Forex Signal (Thur July 22, 2010 10:00am EST NY Time) US Existing Home Sales m/m

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Jul 21, 2010.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2010
    Messages:
    473
    Likes Received:
    0
    The plan for Existing Home Sales release from U.S. will be the typical retracement trading method, where we’ll wait for the release and then wait for a decent retracement before getting into a trade. Here is the forecast for this release:

    Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.18M Previous 5.66M
    ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.60M SELL 4.80M


    The Trade Plan
    Because the Housing sector is one of the most important news events out of the US, this release will certainly cause some volatility in the market, especially if our tradable figures (+/- 400K) were hit. With the focus of the nation, and of the world, on the possible recovery of U.S. housing sector, this release may bring about a strong sentiment of risk appetite if our BUY trigger is hit…

    If our buy tradable deviation is hit, or 5.60M figure is released, we should look to BUY USD/JPY (or GBP/JPY) after the release. If our sell tradable deviation is hit, or 4.80M figure is release, we should look to SELL USD/JPY (or GBP/JPY) as risk sentiment should turn towards aversion.

    If we do not get a tradable release, we should stay out of the market. I recommend a Retracement Trade strategy to trade this release. For more information:
    Henry's Retracement Trade Method

    The Market
    The New Home Buyer’s credit has ended… This number is expected to be on a downward trend from May 2010's reading. The US housing market is likely to decline and possibly hit a bottom around 4th quarter of 2010. However, there is no expectation for housing sector recovery until the employment readings improve significantly.

    With growing number of available inventories and new homes being build, the existing home sales reading should disappoint today.

    Additional Thoughts
    This release is scheduled at 10:00am US Time, it is the last high impact news for the NY session, we could see some exaggerated market movements as traders may just wait for this release to be out of the way before committing to a position.

    With European Bank Stress Test scheduled for release tomorrow, we could see some demand for the USD, therefore be careful when you trade against USD today.

    Definition:
    “Measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because large purchases tend to be made by consumers that are optimistic and confident in their financial position. The sale of a home also triggers commissions for real estate agents, and often home owners will purchase goods such as appliances and furniture shortly after purchasing a home. Traders watch this report closely as it’s the month’s first demand-side housing indicator to be released.”

    For historical charts and data on US Existing Home Sales:
    Historical Chart & Data of US Existing Home Sales


    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Jul 21, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. West Coast Pips

    West Coast Pips Sergeant

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2009
    Messages:
    132
    Likes Received:
    0
    This is another release I do not like. Look back to June 22, 2010 when this deviated by -0.46. This is a reasonably good deviation yet the yen pairs spiked down and pulled back right the way to open of the 10am EST 1 minute candle. Take a look for yourself.

    Some releases like this one you just have to stay away from. If you are using SNW to trade this release be careful also as the data comes to it a little late for this release. New home sales is more important than existing home sales.
     
  3. theblacktao

    theblacktao Recruit

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2010
    Messages:
    13
    Likes Received:
    0
    More Pips

    Got 20 pips on the retrace. TOTAL FOR TODAY'S THREE NEWS RELEASES = +65 Pips. Thanks again Henry
     

Share This Page