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Forex Signal (Thur July 22, 2010 8:30am EST NY Time) CA Core Retail Sales m/m

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Jul 21, 2010.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    We’re also getting the Core Retail Sales release from Canada today, let’s look at the forecast:

    8:30am NY Time Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.5% Previous -1.2%
    ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.1% SELL 1.1%


    The Trade Plan
    I’m going to be looking for a deviation of 0.6% for this news. Since the forecast is at +0.5%, if we get a -0.1% or worse, it would be negative for the CAD and we’ll be looking to BUY USD/CAD; however, if the opposite is true, or a 1.1% of actual release, I’ll be looking to SELL USD/CAD.

    I'll be looking to trade this release using my after news retracement trading method, or Retracement Trade. For more detail on my trading methods:
    Henry's Retracement Trade Method

    The Market
    BOC hiked rates as expected sending out a bullish message yesterday, however BOC Carney issued a cautious statement which mentioned the lack of confidence in Europe and the fact that BOC will evaluate global market condition instead of on the basis of inflation alone in their future monetary policies. This type of positive/negative one-two punch message is going to keep USD/CAD in a tight range, from the lows of 1.0280 to the highs of 1.0680. I believe we should trade the ranges by selling from the top and buying from the bottom.

    Recent Employment Change from Canada showed a surprisingly 93.2K of new jobs created, this is surely going to add expectations for better release today. My bias is to SELL USD/CAD :) Note:You can take a pre-news trade sell USD/CAD during European session, but you have to close the trade before the 8:30am release, or close part of your order to cut down on risk exposure.

    Additional Thoughts
    USD/CAD is the recommended pair, if we get a strong deviation, don't expect much retracement as this pair should move steadily and gradually until after the European market close, which is around 11:30am EST.

    If we get a good release, it is justifiable to jump in a trade even if the market didn't retrace back within 20~30 pips of the pre-release level, because usually USD/CAD pair will spike, retrace about 20 pips from the spike high, and then retest the spike highs and make a breakout. Just be mindful of the ranges (1.0280 & 1.0680), as long as we are not testing them, market should push this pair along.

    For historical charts and data on CA Core Retail Sales:
    Historical Chart & Data Of CA Retail Sales m/m

    Definition
    Our focus is on the Core Retail Sales release and not the headline Retail Sales release; Retail Sales releases from Canada is a month on month release, and basically it’s a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, and the Core release is the same Retail Sales but excluding most volatile components, Automotive Components, which makes up about 25% and it varies seasonly. A better release generally means more consumer spending, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency. And the CORE reading provides a far more accurate look of the actual economy.


    Thanks,



    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Jul 21, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. West Coast Pips

    West Coast Pips Sergeant

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    Personally I would not trade this release. The spikes for the release in the past have not been very good even whe triggers are met. You only have to look back at May 21, 2010 to see how core retail sales deviated by a big +1.3& how ugly the spike was. The same was true on Jan 22, 2010 when core retail sales deviated by +0.5 and the spike was terrible.

    You don't need to trade every significant news release out there. I feel CAD retail sales is just one of those. Stick with the better releases.
     
  3. DaveO

    DaveO Private, 1st Class

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  4. kennyj

    kennyj Recruit

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    GBP retail release

    what prospect does this news have on the chat. any signal analysis on this. is it to up or down.
     
  5. Lejeune

    Lejeune Recruit

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    Hi Henry and all

    Obviously speed is of essence when you are trading news. Can you please recommend a fast and reliable news service?
     
  6. Jeffreyfx1

    Jeffreyfx1 Recruit

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    Hi Henry! Just an appreciation for your analysis, was able to scoop up to 60pips from your USDCAD recommendation today. Thanks and more grease to ya elbow!
     
  7. latiff

    latiff Recruit

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    +50 pips USDCAD, Thank You Henry :)
     
  8. jchamorro

    jchamorro Recruit

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    USDCad

    The pair did spike a little with the release as expected however I would I have expected it to retrace and gained but it just went south, can you give some thought.
     
  9. theblacktao

    theblacktao Recruit

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    Made 25 pips on the retrace. Thank you Henry.
     
  10. moom

    moom Recruit

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    Hi Henry,
    This was a good one. Made 199 pips. Thank you very much.
     

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